RNW: National politics dominate Dutch local elections by Rutger van Santen

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National politics dominate Dutch local elections by Rutger van Santen

A stranger to the Netherlands might have got the impression over recent weeks that the future of this country is the issue at stake on 7 March. In fact, it's 'nothing more' than the day of the local council elections, held every four years. However, to the great irritation of many, it's national politicians who've been claiming most of the media attention.Local election campaigns are traditionally supposed to focus on issues such as the creation of new sports fields, the accessibility of town centres or the number of local facilities, not about the credibility of Christian Democrat Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende or the qualities of the man widely predicted to be his successor, Labour Party leader Wouter Bos.Within the largest government party, the Christian Democrat CDA of Prime Minister Balkenende, the outcome of Tuesday's elections is seen as a popularity test for the cabinet in general and Mr Balkenende himself in particular. And the prospects don't look particularly good. Recent polls have shown that a sizeable majority of the Dutch population thinks it's time for the current centre-right cabinet to go, while Mr Balkenende's personal approval rating now stands at just 26 percent. If these figures are confirmed in Tuesday's voting, then the call for early elections will grow in strength.

But it's the second largest party in the current three-party coalition, the conservative-liberal VVD, which is perhaps in the most difficult position. Within the VVD, there's been a longstanding lack of clarity as to who's the real leader and which course the party should follow. Party and parliamentary leader Jozias van Aartsen still hasn't been able to establish any real personal popularity among the electorate. Indeed, a number of his party colleagues appear to be much more popular, including the single-minded minister for immigration and integration, Rita Verdonk, whose tough, almost populist measures have made her popular with more conservative voters. In Rotterdam, the Netherlands' 'second city', a political battle is being fought out between the local Labour Party and the remnants of the party established by populist politician Pim Fortuyn, who was murdered in 2003. This party, the LPF, was responsible for a major political upset in 2002, when it took 19 seats on Rotterdam city council and routed the Labour Party, which had dominated local politics since time immemorial.

Now, many internal and external disputes later, the old political balance looks set to return in Rotterdam. The LPF is forecast to make major losses, while Labour looks set to return to its former strength. The VVD also has to deal with the unpredictable media appearances of one of its MPs, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who now enjoys international renown as a "crusader against the worldwide influence of Islam". All in all, therefore, many observers are expecting poor results for the VVD in the local elections, and hence potential consequences for the party's national leadership. That, in turn, could also mean problems for the entire coalition government in The Hague.