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1/8/10

US Economy: Outlook for job market is grim

"All signs point to a rocky recovery," says economist Heidi Shierholz at the Economic Policy Institute. "We will likely see elevated unemployment for at least the next five years." She reckons joblessness could still be stuck at 8% in 2014. The economy must clear some imposing hurdles, Shierholz says. The Federal Reserve, having pushed short-term interest rates close to zero, doesn't have many tools left in its economic fix-it kit. State governments, their tax revenues eroded by the recession, are slashing programs and jobs to meet balanced-budget requirements.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects consumer spending to grow 2.5% a year from 2008 to 2018, down from average annual growth of 3% in the previous two decades. Spending on durable goods, excluding autos, will grow 4.9% a year through 2018, down from 8.1% annual growth from 1998 to 2008. Sales of cars and light trucks won't reclaim the heights they reached in the mid-2000s, when they surpassed 16 million a year: Government forecasters expect auto sales to hit 14.4 million in 2018. Foreign competition and automation will continue to kill manufacturing jobs: The government expects factories to cut 1.2 million manufacturing jobs by 2018.

Seeing the fastest job growth at 72% through 2018 are biomedical engineers (median wage: $77,400). "I can see myself staying in the medical device industry," says Johns Hopkins grad Hutchens. "It's only growing. There are going to be a lot of cool projects to work on."

Outlook for job market is grim - USATODAY.com


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