Tomorrow we will see a gamble on a monumental scale, one of the greatest in postwar British political history. What George Osborne does in his emergency budget will determine not only his own reputation but the future of the coalition. If he pulls off a drastic reduction in spending and tax rises without revolt at Westminster or in the country, he gives David Cameron his path to future election victory. If he tips the economy into recession, or splits the coalition, everything collapses.
As simple as that? Pretty much, except that this is a gamble with the livelihoods and living standards of millions of people, based on spuriously exact estimates about future trends nobody really understands, and with the gamblers themselves deeply divided in their instincts. After the calm of the early honeymoon days of the coalition, we are heading for wild, high-stakes politics.
Cameron and Osborne have gone around the country, or at least the media, trying to stir up despair. From their jolting words about Britain being changed for generations to come, about everyone sharing the pain, they suggest a budget of ferocious bleakness. Many commentators assume it's the old game of expectation management, and when the detailed figures are announced by the chancellor there will be a whistle of relief and a few choruses of "good old George" in the Dog and Duck.
For more: The budget for generations is just a gamble from the gut | Jackie Ashley | Comment is free | The Guardian
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