Egypt had less than two days to recover from the shock of the worst bloodshed in its modern history – at least 640 dead and 4,000 injured – when the whole deadly cycle started again on Friday: mass arrests during the night, mass demonstrations on a nationwide scale, heavy gunfire ringing out in the heart of Cairo and the first reports of scores of deaths. The abyss facing Egypt under the current military government is huge.
If the government carries out its ambition to dismantle the Muslim Brotherhood and destroy it as a political force, it will be doing something more ambitious than the dictator Hosni Mubarak attempted. But in the process it may also shatter Egypt. The sheer size of the mass demonstrations on Friday are a sign that the military regime cannot hold the country on their own, and the anti-coup forces' ability to mount such sustained defiance – and do so repeatedly, in the face of live fire – is an indication of what Egypt's new military rulers are up against.
The crackdown has nevertheless been fuelled by the support from a significant section of the population, some of whom set up roadblocks in Cairo to stop marchers from entering the centre of the city. But claims from the supporters of the military government to be the authentic, and exclusive, voice of the Egyptian people should be treated sceptically. Before the polarisation of Egyptian society goes deeper, it is worth restating a few basic hopes.
The first is that the shock generated by the deaths of fellow Egyptians will eventually bring people together. It is one thing to oppose an Islamic movement and fight – at the polls – the cause of a pluralistic, multifaith, democratic Egypt. It is quite another to applaud their deaths and justify their massacre.
So far only the Salafist al-Nour party, the liberal April 6 group and the far left revolutionary socialists have spoken against the killings. Most other factions call the Brotherhood a terrorist threat and support the government action. But the cracks are growing. Khaled Dawoud, the spokesman of the National Salvation Front, who supported the coup, resigned on Friday, tweeting that he could not continue with political parties who refused to condemn the shootings. If the ranks of the demonstrators are being swollen by prominent liberals such as the youth leader Abdul Rahman Fares and the secular poet Abdul Rahman Yousef, then a split between secular revolutionaries and the Brotherhood that goes right the way back to the start of the revolution in 2011 could be in the process of being repaired.
This could be a way forward. The forces that combined to oust one military dictatorship will have to find a way of replacing a second and even more brutal one.
The second hope is that the anti-coup protest remains focused on the coup. This is not certain at present. At least 12 Coptic churches have been torched and over 20 attacked. The Brotherhood has condemned the attacks, saying that the fact that the Coptic church applauded the coup is no justification for sectarian attacks on Christian worshippers. They should go further and provide physical protection for them, especially if the police stand by and do nothing. Sectarianism is as much an enemy of an anti-coup movement as retaliatory violence is.
The international community is starting to grasp the dimensions of what is unfolding. Europe is on Egypt's doorstep and if it descends into civil conflict, as it still might, the displaced will travel north across the sea if they can. The EU foreign policy representative Baroness Ashton, who met with President Mohamed Morsi and called for utmost restraint, should continue with her mission.
Diplomatic pressure from Europe is all the more important as Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah declared his support for what he termed Egypt's "fight against terrorism". There are no easy options here, but only one condition will guarantee Egypt's stability – the return to full democratic legitimacy.
If the government carries out its ambition to dismantle the Muslim Brotherhood and destroy it as a political force, it will be doing something more ambitious than the dictator Hosni Mubarak attempted. But in the process it may also shatter Egypt. The sheer size of the mass demonstrations on Friday are a sign that the military regime cannot hold the country on their own, and the anti-coup forces' ability to mount such sustained defiance – and do so repeatedly, in the face of live fire – is an indication of what Egypt's new military rulers are up against.
The crackdown has nevertheless been fuelled by the support from a significant section of the population, some of whom set up roadblocks in Cairo to stop marchers from entering the centre of the city. But claims from the supporters of the military government to be the authentic, and exclusive, voice of the Egyptian people should be treated sceptically. Before the polarisation of Egyptian society goes deeper, it is worth restating a few basic hopes.
The first is that the shock generated by the deaths of fellow Egyptians will eventually bring people together. It is one thing to oppose an Islamic movement and fight – at the polls – the cause of a pluralistic, multifaith, democratic Egypt. It is quite another to applaud their deaths and justify their massacre.
So far only the Salafist al-Nour party, the liberal April 6 group and the far left revolutionary socialists have spoken against the killings. Most other factions call the Brotherhood a terrorist threat and support the government action. But the cracks are growing. Khaled Dawoud, the spokesman of the National Salvation Front, who supported the coup, resigned on Friday, tweeting that he could not continue with political parties who refused to condemn the shootings. If the ranks of the demonstrators are being swollen by prominent liberals such as the youth leader Abdul Rahman Fares and the secular poet Abdul Rahman Yousef, then a split between secular revolutionaries and the Brotherhood that goes right the way back to the start of the revolution in 2011 could be in the process of being repaired.
This could be a way forward. The forces that combined to oust one military dictatorship will have to find a way of replacing a second and even more brutal one.
The second hope is that the anti-coup protest remains focused on the coup. This is not certain at present. At least 12 Coptic churches have been torched and over 20 attacked. The Brotherhood has condemned the attacks, saying that the fact that the Coptic church applauded the coup is no justification for sectarian attacks on Christian worshippers. They should go further and provide physical protection for them, especially if the police stand by and do nothing. Sectarianism is as much an enemy of an anti-coup movement as retaliatory violence is.
The international community is starting to grasp the dimensions of what is unfolding. Europe is on Egypt's doorstep and if it descends into civil conflict, as it still might, the displaced will travel north across the sea if they can. The EU foreign policy representative Baroness Ashton, who met with President Mohamed Morsi and called for utmost restraint, should continue with her mission.
Diplomatic pressure from Europe is all the more important as Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah declared his support for what he termed Egypt's "fight against terrorism". There are no easy options here, but only one condition will guarantee Egypt's stability – the return to full democratic legitimacy.
Read m ore: Egypt: disaster on Europe's doorstep | Editorial | Comment is free | The Guardian
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