Global Economy:The Calm Before the Economic Storm - by John Mauldin

The Friday after Thanksgiving is known for heavy spending in retail stores, but it’s clear that consumers are increasingly turning to the Internet to make their holiday purchases,” said Comscore Chairman Gian Fulgoni at the time. “Online spending on Black Friday has historically represented an early indicator of how the rest of the season will shake out. That the 22-percent growth rate versus last year is outpacing the overall growth rate for the first three weeks of the season should be seen as a sign of positive momentum.

The Great Recession began one month after this “sign of positive momentum.” A strong holiday shopping season won’t mean we are out of the woods and could mean we are just entering them.

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