OPEC lowering oil production

The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries on Wednesday decided to sharply cut production to support sagging oil prices, a move that could deal the struggling global economy another blow and raise politically sensitive pump prices for U.S. drivers just ahead of key national elections.

Read more at: https://www.cbc.com

Global Economy: How billionaires are exploiting a world in crisis, and laughing all the way to the bank - by Stephen J. Lyons

Divide and conquer – this strategy has worked for centuries. Americans’ full-throated participation is required as we blame each other for everything, from job losses to political defeats to the rising costs of living.

And, if we can’t condemn each other, then we can always turn on those invasive brown and black immigrants from what previous, twice-impeached US president Donald Trump called “sh**hole countries”.

Meanwhile, the real culprits, the cabal of greedy billionaires that manipulate the international economic system – and, consequently, the futures of the rest of us taxpayers – laugh all the way to the banks, which, of course, they also own. <

Read more at: a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3164956/how-billionaires-are-exploiting-world-crisis-and-laughing-all-way">How billionaires are exploiting a world in crisis, and laughing all the way to the bank | South China Morning Post

Global Economy: China Is the Only Major Economy to Report Economic Growth for 2020 - by Grace Zhu and Bingyan Wang

China’s economy expanded by 2.3% in 2020, roaring back from a historic contraction in the early months of the year to become the only major world economy to grow in what was a pandemic-ravaged year.

China’s ability to expand, even as the world struggled to control a deadly virus that has killed more than two million people, underscores the country’s success in largely taming the coronavirus within its borders and further cements its place as the dominant economy in Asia.

Note EU-Digest: On Monday, China reported a year-on-year increase of 6.5% for the fourth quarter of 2020 and a 2.3% increase for all of 2020, surpassing analysts' forecasts and making China the the only major economy to log positive growth in 2020.Fortune magazine predicts that financial experts believe that China's economy will overtake that of the US somewhere between 2026 and 2029.

Read more at: China Is the Only Major Economy to Report Economic Growth for 2020 - WSJ

Middle East - The Red Sea Region: ‘A vital artery for the world economy’ - note EU-Digest - "but also more than that" - by Alex de Waal

From the Suez Canal that links it to the Mediterranean, to the straits of the Bab al Mandab that connect it to the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea is a vital artery for the world economy. Upwards of 10% of seaborne cargo sails through its waters every year including the majority of Asian trade with Europe.

For any navy aspiring to transoceanic reach, the Red Sea is a crucial chokepoint, and it is no accident that China chose to establish its first overseas naval facility at Djibouti. Fifteen years ago, the upsurge in piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the western Indian Ocean led to an international maritime police operation.

Note EU-Digest: Armageddon as predicted in the Bible, could well take place in this area.Professor Tom Meyer, who memorised more than 20 books from the Bible, said: "The Rapture, which is the first event that kicks-off the beginning of the end, has no signs that precede it. The truth is that Christ also gave a chronological order of end times events, or signs of the times, for the seven-year tribulation, also called the 70th week of Daniel, but these events do not begin until sometime after the Rapture of Christians."

Read more at: The Red Sea: ‘A vital artery for the world economy’

The Global Economy: Real World Economics: Bad trade policies will last for years – by Edward Lotterman

The election Tuesday will be a momentous one in U.S. history, perhaps the most important since 1932 or even 1860. The last four years have been turbulent indeed for our politics and economics. Those splits will remain as we now vote against a backdrop of a world pandemic not seen in a century.

Read more at:Real World Economics: Bad trade policies will last for years – Twin Cities

Global Economic Recession"US, China, India, Europe can't save global economy from recession - by Linette Lopez

The coronavirus depression will be much worse than the last worldwide recession, because this time no country is strong enough to rescue the global economy.

The story of the Great Recession goes like this: the US and Europe were crippled while working to clean up their devastated banking system, the global services sector suffered without its biggest player — the US consumer engine — but global economic growth didn't completely fall off a cliff because other countries kept money moving around the planet.

Over in China policymakers enacted a massive stimulus to skip over the recession entirely. The country's GDP grew 9.4% in 2009. India chugged along as if the crisis barely happened, with its GDP growing 7.9% in 2009.

But this time there is no corner of the globe that has been left untouched by the pandemic or its effects. And so, there's no country that can reasonably chug along and keep things from getting truly disastrous.

Read more at: 
US, China, India, Europe can't save global economy from recession - Business Insider

Global Economy: The coronavirus recession is over for the rich, but the working class is far from recovered - by Heather Long

U.S. stocks are hovering near a record high, a stunning comeback since March that underscores the new phase the economy has entered: The wealthy have mostly recovered. The bottom half remain far from it.

This dichotomy is evident in many facets of the economy, especially in employment. Jobs are fully back for the highest wage earners, but fewer than half the jobs lost this spring have returned for those making less than $20 an hour, according to a new labor data analysis by John Friedman, an economics professor at Brown University and co-director of Opportunity Insights.

Though recessions almost always hit lower-wage workers the hardest, the pandemic is causing especially large gaps between rich and poor, and between White and minority households. It is also widening the gap between big and small businesses. Some of the largest companies, such as Nike and Best Buy, are enjoying their highest stock prices ever while many smaller businesses fight for survival.

Read more at:
The coronavirus recession is over for the rich, but the working class is far from recovered - The Washington Post

UN Trade Agency: Coronavirus update: COVID-19 likely to cost economy $1 trillion during 2020, says UN trade agency

Apart from the tragic human consequences of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic, the economic uncertainty it has sparked will likely cost the global economy $1 trillion in 2020, the UN’s trade and development agency, UNCTAD, said on Monday.

Read more at:
Coronavirus update: COVID-19 likely to cost economy $1 trillion during 2020, says UN trade agency | | UN News

Global Economy: Oil prices drop amid supply glut, fears of second coronavirus wave

Oil prices slid nearly $1 a barrel on Monday as concern over a persistent glut and economic gloom caused by the coronavirus pandemic combined to cancel out support from supply cuts at some of the world's top producers.

Read more at:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/oil-prices-drop-amid-supply-glut-fears-of-second-coronavirus-wave-idUKKBN22M0SC

Global Economy: Coronavirus: Half a billion people could be pushed into poverty, says UN study

 A study says the pandemic could push 8% of the world's population into poverty, prompting calls for a huge rescue package for vulnerable communities. "Never in the 75 years history of our institution have so many countries found themselves in need," said IMF head Kristalina Georgieva,

Note EU-Digest: After the coronavirus has gone we can only sincerely hope the world will not return to the "status quo", where all the wealth is controlled by 2% of the population and big business. It should be a unique moment for major Social and Political change. Hopefully this will be a peaceful revolution, but given the "forces at play", it could also turn into a violent confrontation between the present established "order", and a newly "awakened social order". These are "interesting times" as the Chinese would say.

Read more at:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-half-a-billion-people-could-be-pushed-into-poverty-says-un-study

Global Economy Global stocks drop as investors shun risk on coronavirus fears

U.S. stock futures and several Asian shares fell in choppy trade on Wednesday, as worries about the coronavirus pandemic eclipsed hopes broad policy support would combat the economic fallout of the outbreak.

Read more:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/global-stocks-drop-as-investors-shun-risk-on-coronavirus-fears-idUKKBN21504I

Global Economy: Corona virus and the Global Economy; Will the coronavirus outbreak derail the global economy?

Read more at
Will the coronavirus outbreak derail the global economy? | News | The Guardian

Global Economy: Global stocks steady as caution on China virus continues; euro hits seven-week low after ECB announcement

Stocks made a barely positive start in early Asian trade on Friday after the world's health body called it a little too early to declare a coronavirus outbreak a global emergency.

Read more at:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/global-stocks-steady-as-caution-on-china-virus-continues-euro-hits-seven-week-low-after-ecb-idUKKBN1ZN02O

Global Economy:The Calm Before the Economic Storm - by John Mauldin

The Friday after Thanksgiving is known for heavy spending in retail stores, but it’s clear that consumers are increasingly turning to the Internet to make their holiday purchases,” said Comscore Chairman Gian Fulgoni at the time. “Online spending on Black Friday has historically represented an early indicator of how the rest of the season will shake out. That the 22-percent growth rate versus last year is outpacing the overall growth rate for the first three weeks of the season should be seen as a sign of positive momentum.

The Great Recession began one month after this “sign of positive momentum.” A strong holiday shopping season won’t mean we are out of the woods and could mean we are just entering them.

Read more at:The Calm Before the Economic Storm | Equities.com

WTO: Canada urges U.S. to save WTO from chaos " brought on by the US Trump Administration"

The global trading system that took decades to build is days away from disarray as the U.S. appears keen to paralyze the World Trade Organization's enforcement system.

Read more at:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-urges-u-s-to-save-wto-from-chaos-1.5369843

Global economy: Major European Bank expects stocks to drop through the end of the year

This big bank expects stocks to drop through the end of the year—here’s why -

Read complete report at:
https://on.mktw.net/2HLQ1uM

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Global Economy: Donald Trump fine tuning his BS to show there is no reason to worry

Read more at :
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/recession-economy-1.5256099

Global Economy: Central Bankers Are Sick of Rescuing the World Economy Alone - by William Horobin and Simon Kennedy

Global central bankers are again in the driving seat when it comes to propping up the world economy, but many are demanding governments join them in the rescue effort.

Amid slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and perhaps even the Bank of Japan are all set to ease monetary policy in coming months. But with less room to act than in the past, their leaders are telling politicians they will need to assist if a downturn takes hold.

The pressure could be applied in person on Wednesday when central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations meet for talks north of Paris. They convene at a hazardous juncture for the global economy, as an unpredictable trade war risks precipitating a deeper downturn, and some bond markets hint at a growing possibility of a recession.

G-7 host nation France may even offer a reason to take note. President Emmanuel Macron’s 17 billion euros ($19.2 billion) of support for consumers in response to the Yellow Vests protests may have been contrary to his deficit-reduction mantra, but is proving fortuitous amid a global slowdown. French growth in 2019 is expected to outpace the euro-area average for the first time in six years.

“We are seeing political risks rising everywhere, so addressing the lack of growth that benefits all is quite urgent,” said Laurence Boone, chief economist at the OECD. “That cannot be achieved only through monetary policy.”
 

France’s GDP is expected to be more resilient than peers this year

While Powell has warned the U.S. fiscal position is unsustainable in the long-run, he said last week it’s “not a good thing to have monetary policy being the main game in town.” 

The U.S. got a boost in 2018 from President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax overhaul, but that effect is fading.

Read more at: Central Bankers Are Sick of Rescuing the World Economy Alone - Bloomberg

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Oil Production: Oil plunges to lowest in a year despite potential OPEC cut

 Oil prices slumped more than 6 percent to the lowest in more than a year on Friday amid fears of a supply glut even as major producers consider cutting output.

Oil supply, led by US producers, is growing faster than demand and to prevent a build-up of unused fuel such as the one that emerged in 2015, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to start trimming output after a meeting on December 6.

But this has done little so far to prop up prices, which have dropped more than 20 percent so far in November, in a seven-week streak of losses. Prices were on course for their biggest one-month decline since late 2014.

A trade war between the world’s two biggest economies and oil consumers, the United States and China, have weighed upon the market.

“The market is pricing in an economic slowdown - they are anticipating that the Chinese trade talks are not going to go well,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, referring to expected talks next week between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires.

“The market doesn’t believe that OPEC is going to be able to act swiftly enough to offset the coming slowdown in demand,” Flynn said.

Brent crude fell $3.13, or 5 percent, to $59.47 a barrel by 1:01 p.m. EST (1801 GMT), after earlier touching $58.41, its lowest since October 2017.

If OPEC decides to cut production at its meeting next month, oil prices could recover, analysts say.

“We expect that OPEC will manage the market in 2019 and assess the probability of an agreement to reduce production at around 2-in-3. In that scenario, Brent prices likely recover back into the $70s,” Morgan Stanley commodities strategists Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in a note to clients.

If OPEC does not trim production, prices could head much lower, potentially depreciating toward $50 a barrel, argues Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM.

Read more: Oil plunges to lowest in a year despite potential OPEC cut - Al Arabiya English

US ECONOMY: COULD RECORD US DEFICIT TRIGGER THE NEXT RECESSION: ? "As U.S. trade gap widens to unimaginable hights."

The U.S. trade deficit rose to a seven-month high in September as imports surged to a record high amid strong domestic demand, offsetting a rebound in exports.

The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap increased 1.3 percent to $54.0 billion, widening for a fourth straight month. Data for August was revised to show the trade deficit rising to $53.3 billion instead of the previously reported $53.2 billion.

Could the US Economy collapse?

But here's the bigger question that retail investors and Wall Street are currently asking: Is the current stock market correction over? Given the many headwinds facing stocks and the U.S. and/or global economy, the answer may not be what investors want to hear.

Here are 25 reasons and/or scenarios that could cause the stock market to head substantially lower than where it's currently valued.

1. The ongoing trade war with China escalates, raising material costs, curbing consumer spending, and hurting corporate profits.
2. Corporate share buybacks fail to boost per-share profits as much as expected.
3. Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, hurting the chance of Republicans to pass further fiscal stimulus legislation.
4. The federal budget deficit continues to soar, placing added emphasis on our growing national debt, currently at more than $21 trillion.
5. The U.S. dollar keeps strengthening, placing pressure on exports and worsening the U.S. trade deficit with foreign countries.
6. FANG stocks – that's Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet) -- continue to draw the ire of short-sellers.
7. The Federal Reserve gets overly aggressive with interest rate hikes, sapping lending demand.
8. The yield curve flattens, reducing the desire of banks to lend money.
9. Interest rates rise, providing incentive for investors to ditch volatile equities for the safety of bonds and bank CDs.
10. Britain falls into a "hard Brexit." With few or no trade deals in place, the U.K. falls into recession, taking the U.S. and other developed countries with it.
11. China's economy experiences its slowest growth in decades, placing pressure on its ability to import from the U.S. and other key players.
12. The U.S. housing market shows signs of weakening, with important markets like California seeing a steep drop-off in new home sales.
13. Credit-card delinquencies begin to trickle higher, demonstrating the inability of consumers to meet their payment obligations.
14. The subprime auto loan market bubble bursts.
15. The U.S. goes to war, regardless of the reason or the country in question.
16. An errant tweet from President Trump stirs Wall Street and investors.
17. A flash crash caused by computer algorithms results in substantially reduced liquidity and perpetuates a rapid move lower in the stock market.
18. Investor emotions (especially those of day traders) get out of hand and send traders running for the exit.
19. The unemployment rate, which is at a 49-year low, begins to rise, signaling peak employment and the possibility of a weakening economy.
20. Disruption in important oil-producing countries causes crude prices to skyrocket or plunge. Either way, it could create sticker shock or job losses and adversely impact the U.S. economy.
21. U.S. GDP data shows slowing growth, which, in turn, cools investor expectations for stocks, sending them lower.
22. Inflation comes in far lower than expected, signaling that businesses have little pricing power. The prospect of deflation could wreak havoc on corporate earnings, causing the market to fall.
23. The U.S. debt ceiling is hit (yet again), but the political divide in Congress becomes too great for lawmakers to overcome, allowing the shutdown to perpetuate for months.
24. European debt crisis 2.0 hits, with countries like Italy unable to dig their way out of years of loose borrowing.
25. A widely followed pundit, such as Warren Buffett, sounds the cry of the stock market being overvalued.

In other words, there is no shortage of reasons the stock market could tumble from its recent all-time highs.

Bottom-line, however -it does not look good for the US Economy as the deficit is coming close to a trillion US dollars.Impossible to pay it back, unless by slashing government spending, and increasing taxes.

Unlike the trillion dollar budget deficits that occurred during the Obama administration that were temporary and largely the result of the Great Recession, the Trump deficits that will soon reach and exceed $1 trillion are permanent and will only get worse in the years ahead.

The Trump deficits are the result of changes in federal spending and revenue that will continue to be in place until some president and Congress decide to reverse them, that is, to increase taxes and make cuts to popular programs.

EU-Digest