Trade: A single market for the future – by Philippe Pochet

That revival can generally be understood as a desire to create a European form of capitalism. This project was supported at the time by some 40 major industrial leaders who formed the Round Table of Industrialists, an episode well chronicled by Bastiaan Van Appeldoorn. It was also the project pursued by the president of the commission, Jacques Delors.

This period was marked by compromise between the political forces of the left and right on the internal market and a certain social dimension. It saw the emergence of European social dialogue and the 1989 Community Charter of the Fundamental Social Rights of Workers and the accompanying social programme.

Read more at: A single market for the future – Philippe Pochet

Europe: The future of Europe: who holds the baton? –by Alberto Alemanno

Nine months after its delayed inception, the Conference on the Future of Europe is entering its second, concluding phase. The first two of the randomly selected European Citizens’ Panels have produced their recommendations, now transferred to the political level.

Last Friday and Saturday, the conference plenary—which in an unprecedented manner mixes elected politicians and other institutional actors with ordinary citizens—met to discuss the first 91 citizens’ recommendations received thus far. The two remaining panels, on ‘EU in the world / migration‘, and ‘A stronger economy, social justice and jobs / Education, culture, youth and sport / Digital transformation’, are due to finalise their work by the end of February.

Read more at: The future of Europe: who holds the baton? – Alberto Alemanno

NATO's Future: Euro-Atlantic Alliance in a Peacetime War- by Alessandro Marrone Karolina Muti

Looking at 2030, NATO evolution will depend on two main variables. First, whether the international security environment will lean towards a scenario of “aggressive multipolarity”. In this scenario, global and regional powers are engaged in various forms of proxy wars, cyber-attacks, information warfare, and use to put societies of its competitors under pressure by targeting critical infrastructure, energy security, political decision-making, public opinion, etc., without escalating to military conflict – a sort of “peacetime war”. Second, NATO’s future will depend on domestic politics of the Alliance’s major members. US future approach to multilateral alliances will be a determining factor. The two variables are intertwined, and in Europe they further interact with the EU integration process and the path towards greater strategic autonomy in the defence domain. In this context, Italy has to move forward its traditional priorities regarding relations with the US, dialogue and deterrence towards Russia, NATO–EU strategic partnership, and the stabilisation of the “Enlarged Mediterranean” region.

Paper prepared for the webinar “The Future of NATO” jointly organized on 8 October 2020 by Aspen Institute Italia and Istituto Affari Internazionali, in partnership with Real Istituto Elcano and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. Published also in Italian: “Il futuro della Nato: l’Alleanza euro-atlantica nella guerra in tempo di pace”.

Read more at: NATO's Future: Euro-Atlantic Alliance in a Peacetime War | IAI Istituto Affari Internazionali

USA - Poll: Hope for America’s Future Fades

Americans have lost hope in the nation’s future since last year and only a third now believe the country’s best days are ahead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that only 33% of American Adults now say America’s best days are in the future. That’s a steep decline from last November, when 47% of Likely Voters believed the nation’s best days were still ahead. As recently as April 2019, an absolute majority (54%) of voters saw America’s best days in the future.

Read more at: Hope for America’s Future Fades - Rasmussen Reports®

Global Warming: The climate crisis has made the idea of a better future impossible to imagine - by Ian Jack

Writing in 2003, the American environmentalist Bill McKibben observed that although “some small percentage” of scientists, diplomats and activists had known for 15 years that the Earth was facing a disastrous change, their knowledge had almost completely failed to alarm anyone else.

It certainly alarmed McKibben: in June 1988, the scientist James Hansen testified to the US Congress that the world was warming rapidly and human behaviour was the primary cause – the first loud and unequivocal warning of the climate crisis to come – and before the next year was out, McKibben had published The End of Nature, the first book about climate change for a lay audience. But few others seemed particularly worried. “People think about ‘global warming’ in the way they think about ‘violence on television’ or ‘growing trade deficits’, as a marginal concern to them, if a concern at all,” he wrote in 2003. “Hardly anyone has fear in their guts.”

Read more at: The climate crisis has made the idea of a better future impossible to imagine | Ian Jack | The Guardian

'Russia is heading for a catastrophe'

Russia has rarely been out of the news in recent weeks.

Whether being sanctioned by the US for alleged hacking and election interference, or being threatened with punishment over its treatment of opposition activist Alexei Navalny, Moscow has been repeatedly criticised by world leaders.

Whilst trying to analyse Russia’s next moves, Kremlin watchers have been grappling with some big questions: What does Russia want? What is President Putin thinking? And where is this vast country going?

Read more at: 'Russia is heading for a catastrophe' - BBC News

Europe's democratic renewal needs a feminist slant - by Iratxe García Pérez

If the Covid-19 outbreak has taught us anything, it’s that preparedness for crises is crucial to save lives. To be better prepared, we need to have a discussion about the future of the European Union. And not just among politicians. This is where the Conference on the Future of Europe comes in, which had been proposed already before the pandemic because, even back then, it was necessary to update our common vision and to speed up decision-making in our union of 27 member states.

Now, the time has come to get out of the ‘Brussels bubble’, listen to people and advance towards a feminist Europe. We need a new concept of power, a new approach to representative democracy and a new mindset in the EU institutions. This transformation should also be reflected in the institutional architecture. We must ensure that the conference plenary does not just become a political theatre for EU politicians to debate among themselves. Instead, it needs to be a forum to give a voice to citizens

Read more at: Europe's democratic renewal needs a feminist slant – Iratxe García Pérez

EU 'Future' Conference plus Covid recovery talks-by Eszter Zalan

After months of haggling over which EU politician should be the face of the much-delayed Conference on the Future of Europe, on Wednesday (10 March) the heads of the three EU institutions will finally give their blessing to the public citizens' meetings.

EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, European Parliament president David Sassoli, and Portuguese prime minister António Costa - whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency - will sign a joint declaration on the conference.

Read more at: EU 'Future' Conference plus Covid recovery talks This WEEK

US Economy Poll: Americans More Pessimistic About Economic Future

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 41% of American Adults say the U.S. economy will be weaker a year from now. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the economy will be stronger in a year, and 13% expect it to be about the same.

Read more at: Americans More Pessimistic About Economic Future - Rasmussen Reports®

History - repeating itself?: Can History Predict the Future? - by Graeme Wood

The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari. The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat had once found Turchin’s historical model­ing unpersuasive, but 2020 made him a believer: “At this point,” Douthat recently admitted on a podcast, “I feel like you have to pay a little more attention to him.”

Read more at:Can History Predict the Future? - The Atlantic

EU-US Relations after Trump: What Should Europe Expect from a Biden Trade Policy? – by Uri Dadush

The European Union-United States trade and investment relationship remains the world’s most intensive even after Brexit. Trade between the U.S. and the EU (minus the United Kingdom) totalled around $1 trillion in 2018, about a third larger than U.S. ties with China. EU27/U.S. bilateral FDI stocks surpassed $4.5 trillion, dwarfing those with China. Despite the frequently differing positions of EU members on trade policy, the EU-U.S. relationship stood the test of time and continued to deepen. But, over the last four years, President Trump’s strictly transactional approach to trade policy, with an obsessive emphasis on reducing bilateral deficits, has amounted essentially to managed trade and is diametrically opposed to the principle of non-discrimination enshrined in multilateral trade disciplines, which Americans and  Europeans worked together to establish.

There is little doubt that a Biden Presidency would mark a toning down of EU-U.S. tensions and a return to civility. Attitudes across the Atlantic will converge again in important areas such as climate change. Surprisingly, voters who identify as Democrats are far more likely than Republican voters to support open trade, even though that is not the case in the U.S. Congress. 

Although Biden appeals to many in the rust belt and has supported steel tariffs in the past, the present tariffs on steel and aluminium, based on Section 232 (national security), are hardly compatible with rebuilding alliances. A way will be found to eliminate them or replace them with other mechanisms. The threat of auto tariffs, which are widely opposed anyway, is certain to fade. Biden, of Irish ancestry, has said that a trade deal with the U.K. should be conditional on preserving peace on the island of Ireland in line with the Good Friday Agreement. This is generally seen as requiring a continued open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, in keeping with the U.K.’s withdrawal agreement from the EU.



Read more at: 
What Should Europe Expect from a Biden Trade Policy? – BRINK – News and Insights on Global Risk

China: Many Germans believe China will replace US as superpower: survey

Some 42% of Germans feel that the United States is likely to slip from its position as leading world power in the next few decades, with China moving up to replace it, a survey published on Tuesday has shown.

Just 14% of those surveyed by the UK-based YouGov polling institute believed that the US would retain its supremacy. Some 23% were undecided and 22% gave no response to the survey question, "Which country, the US or China, will be more powerful in the course of the next 50 years, in your opinion?"

Read more at;
Many Germans believe China will replace US as superpower: survey | News | DW | 14.07.2020

EU Combatting Global Warming A fossil fuel-free future is close at hand ... if the EU wills it – by Patrick ten Brink and Jonathan Bonadio

This is good news for our overheating planet. Accelerating climate action in this way would bring the EU in line with its commitments under the Paris Agreement and recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which emphasises the urgent need to halt climate change at 1.5C or lower to avoid catastrophic consequences for humanity, nature and the planet.

Read more at:
A fossil fuel-free future is close at hand ... if the EU wills it – Patrick ten Brink and Jonathan Bonadio

Social change not status quo is the answer: Solidaristic, social and sensible—reflections on progressivism for today and when tomorrow comes – by Ania Skrzypek

The future of social democracy has been a perennial debate but the coronavirus crisis has provided a shock: progressive politics will not be the same again.

Read more at: 
https://www.socialeurope.eu/solidaristic-social-and-sensible-reflections-on-progressivism-for-today-and-when-tomorrow-comes

EU: Coronavirus could be a bigger test for the EU than the refugee crisis

The coronavirus pounded the European Union this week with the biggest test of its political, economic and social fabric since the refugee crisis of five years ago.

Most dramatically, the Turkish government this week backed off from its commitment made in 2016, in return for 6 billion euros in EU funds, to prevent Syrian refugees from entering Europe. That followed a Thursday airstrike by Russian-backed Syrian forces in Syria’s Idlib province, killing at least 33 Turkish troops, with some turkish sources claiming more than 150 troops killed.

Even as Turkey ordered police, coast guard and border security officials to allow would-be refugees to pass into the EU, Bulgaria responded by sending an extra 1,000 troops to the frontier with Turkey and Greek police launched smoke grenades at one crossing to dissuade migrants.

Containing pathogens is a much different business than managing waves of refugees. However, what unites the two issues is how dramatically the European Union’s response will shape public attitudes about the institution’s relevance, responsiveness, and effectiveness at a crucial historic moment.

The impact of coronavirus on Europe’s future has the potential to be even more significant than the migrant crisis, particularly as it unfolds in almost biblical fashion atop a plague of other European maladies.

Tourist wearing protective respiratory mask tours outside the Colosseo monument were a common sight in the center of Rome..

The coronavirus pounded the European Union this week with the biggest test of its political, economic and social fabric since the refugee crisis of five years ago.

The ripples from the European migrant crisis of 2015 continue until today with its dual shock to the EU’s unity and domestic politics. It triggered a wave of populism and nationalism, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, and Germany’s political fragmentation behind the weakening of Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Even as Turkey ordered police, coast guard and border security officials to allow would-be refugees to pass into the EU, Bulgaria responded by sending an extra 1,000 troops to the frontier with Turkey and Greek police launched smoke grenades at one crossing to dissuade migrants.

Containing pathogens is a much different business than managing waves of refugees. However, what unites the two issues is how dramatically the European Union’s response will shape public attitudes about the institution’s relevance, responsiveness, and effectiveness at a crucial historic moment.

The impact of coronavirus on Europe’s future has the potential to be even more significant than the migrant crisis, particularly as it unfolds in almost biblical fashion atop a plague of other European maladies.

They include, but by no means are limited to: economic slowdown and possible recession (made more likely by coronavirus), the rise of populism and nationalism (stoked as well by the virus), disagreements about how to handle trade talks with a departing United Kingdom (which start Monday), internecine fights over the European budget, and ongoing German leadership crisis and French social upheaval.

The coronavirus morphed this past week into an increasingly global phenomenon that experts agree can no longer be contained. The hit to stock markets was $6 trillion, the biggest weekly fall since the 2008 financial crisis. By Friday, the WHO reported more than 78,000 cases and more than 2,790 deaths ion China – and 70 deaths in 52 other countries.

In Europe, what began as northern Italian phenomenon – where there have been more than 800 infections – has now reached Spain, Greece, Croatia, France, the UK, Switzerland, Romania, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, North Macedonia, and San Marino.

For Europe the Corana Virus is certainly a wake-up call and a national European Medical Emergency. 

Read more at: Coronavirus could be a bigger test for the EU than the refugee crisis

EU - a vision for the future: Macron sets out 10-year vision for EU with call for more integration

French president says EU must have effective defence policy, larger budget and integrated capital markets.

Read more at:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/15/emmanuel-macron-sets-out-10-year-vision-for-eu-with-call-for-more-integration?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Add_to_Firefox

Britain: We need to stay close to the EU – for the good of the economy and the cultural ties that bind us

So it is done. On Friday night, 47 years of British membership of the European Union and its forebears came to an end. It was a moment that will irrevocably shape the course of our nation’s history, but in quite what direction it is impossible to tell. The paradox of Brexit lives on.

Britain has taken a monumental decision from which there is no retreat in the foreseeable future. And yet, three and a half years on from the referendum that heralded our departure, nothing of substance about what it means for our future has been resolved. Brexit continues to be defined by its champions’ hostility to the EU, rather than a realistic vision of what we could become.

Brexit will also fundamentally alter our role in the world. Britain’s most pressing diplomatic challenge will be how to deal with the US at a time when there has never been a more hostile president. Trump lobbied for Brexit because he regarded it as in America’s interests.

He saw in it the potential to weaken Europe, while rendering Britain more compliant with American demands. Trump has already demonstrated that he expects high fidelity, if not subservience, from Britain in his approach to Iran and Palestine. Which side will Britain choose if Trump decides to ramp up US tariffs and sanctions with the EU?

In the coming months, Britain will have to pick a careful path in the shadow of an increasingly for-or-against-us president. US bullying over the Huawei “security risk” and digital taxes on the technology giants is a sure sign of things to come. The other big challenge concerns Britain’s future dealings with China and other authoritarian regimes such as Russia, Brazil, Israel, Turkey and some of the Gulf states.

The government covets a trade deal with China and investment from Beijing, but how will it trade off China’s bulging chequebook with its deplorable record on human rights and free speech? And how would greater cooperation sit with a US that is increasingly hostile to China? If Johnson creates a diplomatic gulf with Europe through the course of the Brexit negotiations, it would be to our peril. Britain could find itself caught between two superpowers without the protective shield of European solidarity to fall back upon.

Read more at: We need to stay close to the EU – for the good of the economy and the cultural ties that bind us | Opinion | The Guardian

Britain: Into the Brexit unknown, a dis-United Kingdom exits the European Union

The United Kingdom leaves the European Union an hour before midnight on Friday, casting off into an uncertain Brexit future that also challenges Europe's post-World War Two project of forging unity from the ruins of conflict.

Read more at:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-preview/into-the-brexit-unknown-a-dis-united-kingdom-exits-the-european-union-idUKKBN1ZS205

EU-British Relations after Brexit: Toward a Privileged EU-UK Partnership - by Joschka Fischer

After a great deal of pain and confusion, the Brexit decision is now effectively behind us. Looking ahead, both sides will have to find ways to cooperate more closely, particularly when it comes to shaping a joint security and foreign policy. China and Russia’s geopolitical positions have not changed because of Brexit, nor has the threat of terrorism diminished. The collective challenges posed by migration, climate change, and many other issues will remain, and it will be up to both the EU and the UK to manage them effectively.

Read more: Toward a Privileged EU-UK Partnership by Joschka Fischer - Project Syndicate

USA: Gene editing ethics, Trump politics and the future of America, as see by Dan Rather.

Dan Rather weighs in on gene editing ethics, Donald Trump's politics, and the future of America itself.

Ready more at: 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/national-dan-rather-interview-1.5119686