US Economy: putting all the facts together-not as good as Trump and some economic pundits want us to believe-not benefitting average Americans

With the stock market Dow Jones dropping 666 points today, in addition to other big decreases in the last few days, the question arises, "is the US economy really in as good a shape as economic pundits and Donald Trump wants us to believe?

Let us look at some of the facts.

Trump said as president he would be bringing economic growth  “from 1% up to 4%.” He added, “I actually think we can go higher than 4%.”

By the time Trump’s team submitted its first budget, that number shrank to 3%. Unfortunately for Trump and everyone else counting on it, he missed each one of those targets. Meanwhile, our neighbors and allies kept moving forward. 

Here’s how U.S. growth has looked under Trump and what it means for most Americans in 2018.

After two consecutive quarters of growth just above 3%, economists and the Trump administration got bad news about the last three months of 2017. During that time, GDP growth slipped to 2.6%.

When that report came out, Trump had just given his late January speech at Davos. “After years of stagnation, the United States is once again experiencing strong economic growth,” the president said.

However, the rate for his first 11+ months in office was even lower.

Technically, Trump didn’t enter office until late January 2017, so 20 days of the past year fall under the Obama administration. However, for that mostly Trump period, the U.S. economy grew 2.3% for the year.

Looking at recent history, this pace of growth is normal, but it falls well below the expectations set by the first businessman president. Besides, what about all the folks getting bonuses and companies hiring following the GOP tax plan passing? Didn’t that movement boost economic numbers?

Trump’s tax plan slashed the corporate rate by over 40%, meaning billions for some of the richest Americans and many companies. However, a late January 2018 report showed hardly any working Americans joining in on the fun.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 2% of U.S. adults got a raise, bonus, or another new type of benefit following the tax cuts passing in December 2017. It’s difficult to see substantially higher growth without more money circulating to first-time small business owners.

The Republicans don't like to mention it, but natural disasters last year made a dent of $306 billion in the US economy.

Other budget items that will affect the US economy are.the border wall $700 million or more, Infrastructure  1.5 trillion. .Military  budget expansion $716 billion.

You don't have to be Einstein to figure out that expenditures based on receivables re taxes etc. will increase the deficit by large numbers.

And if all this is not enough, as one economist noted, given Trumps skirmishes with the US judicial system including the FBI - re Russian investigation,  the US is also only a few "Trump  tweets" away from a constitutional crises, and major upheavals within the US political and financial establishment.

Bottom-line: the US overall health is not in good shape and that 666 point drop of the Dow Jones could very well be the beginning of a major meltdown,

EU-Digest 

Greece seeks Eurozone recognition of economic progress

Greek politicians say they are hopeful that Eurozone ministers will recognise the fiscal progress that the country has made.

Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels on Monday to continue negotiations on a deal to release a portion of billions of bailout funds.

Greek ministers says they will honour a payment of €750m (£544m, $834m) to the IMF due on Tuesday.
No breakthrough is expected at Monday's talks, with many issues unresolved.

Greece's left-wing government has said it will not break anti-austerity electoral promises, something that has put the country at odds with European creditors.

Greece has until June to agree a new reform deal with its creditors.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is reported to have told his cabinet that Europe needs to acknowledge the economic reforms that Greece has made.

Eurozone ministers are not hopeful of a deal being struck.

Read more: Greece seeks Eurozone recognition of economic progress - BBC News

Global Economy: Wall Street braces for big losses as global stocks sink

Investor fear resumed Thursday as Wall Street looked set for another angst-ridden trading session triggered in part by worries that major economies around the world are seeing slowing growth.

The prospect of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa spiraling out of control is also weighing heavily.
U.S. stock futures wavered several hours ahead of the market open, before moving firmly lower Thursday. Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes are all off about 0.8% or more.

Stock markets in Asia tumbled earlier after Wall Street saw wild swings Wednesday before ending down 173 points.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index dived 2.3% Thursday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 1%. China's Shanghai Composite index fell 0.7%.

European shares fared no better despite initially displaying some signs of stabilization following huge losses in the prior session.

The German DAX was down 1.7%. Spain's IBEX 35 index tanked 2%. Italy's FTSE MIB closed in on a 3% loss.

The fate of Greece was a particular concern in Europe. Investors are worried the country might need more financial support as its government borrowing rates have risen sharply in recent days. Greece's benchmark 10-year-bond yield rose 1.13 percentage points Thursday to 8.86%.

Oil prices continued to come under pressure.

U.S. crude was down over 2% to $79.91 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 6 cents to close at $81.78 on Wednesday.

Read more: Wall Street braces for big losses as global stocks sink

Reality or the Usual Pessimism: With US, Europe Stalling, China’s Out of Tricks To Reboot Economy - by William Pesek

 Policy makers around the world have long envied China’s ability to get big things done. A huge 4 trillion-yuan ($630 billion) stimulus plan as the global economy cratered in 2008? No problem. Marshaling banks to lend trillions more? Check. Enacting sweeping regulatory changes at a moment’s notice? You bet.

Ahhh, the good old days. Now, a once-in-a-decade leadership shift is getting in the way of the stimulus-happy policies to which investors became accustomed. The nimbleness that helped China steer around the worst of the global crisis is confronting political paralysis of the kind more often seen in Japan, Europe and the United States. The upshot is that China’s 7.6 percent growth rate may fall more in the next 12 months than anyone expects.

It’s not that Wen Jiabao doesn’t get the extent to which the supposedly unstoppable China has hit a wall. Just as in 2009, the premier is visiting key industrial cities such as Guangdong and Zhejiang. Wen is facing dour looks from manufacturers surrounded by mounting piles of unsold goods, a rare experience for the main engine of China’s economic rise.

Read more: With US, Europe Stalling, China’s Out of Tricks To Reboot Economy | The Jakarta Globe

USA: In Arizona shooting, Europe sees an America gripped by doubt, pessimism - by Robert Marquand

European reaction to the Gabrielle Giffords Arizona shooting is seen strongly through the lens of the tea party rhetoric and as symptomatic of a superpower in decline and at the mercy of “radical” politics.

The conservative German newspaper Die Welt stated today that: “This murderous attack came from an atmosphere of discord and self-doubt, because America is experiencing the limits of its power on a daily basis, whether it be on distant fronts or with dissatisfaction at home. It has never been like this. There always was the motto: ‘Yes, we can.’ Today, widespread pessimism prevails, because of the financial crisis, and because of Iraq and Afghanistan, lost battles ..."

For more: In Arizona shooting, Europe sees an America gripped by doubt, pessimism - CSMonitor.com