Iran: Spinning out of control
The stakes are rising. A stolen election has ruptured Iranian society, creating the most profound political crisis since the regime was founded. Barack Obama's extended hand is starting to tire and he badly needs success. Meanwhile, the whirring centrifuges spin Iran ever closer to the threshold of being able to manufacture a nuclear bomb. Next week the five permanent members of the UN security council plus Germany and the EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, will sit down with Iran's nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, for the first time in a year. They have said they expect a serious response to their demands to halt Tehran's nuclear program, but have yet to receive a commitment that the topic is even on the agenda.The risks of all this are clear.
If Iran refuses to discuss its nuclear program, to answer the International Atomic Energy Agency's mounting questions, and defies a security council demand to suspend all sensitive nuclear activities, the US will revert to a more traditional posture which contemplates the use of force. No one will be happy, except Israel and Dick Cheney perhaps, that Mr Obama's liberal dreams of changing the way superpowers behave will have been shattered by a regime that enjoys even less legitimacy at home than it does abroad.
Note EU-Digest: Use of force is not necessary and would be a stupid move. What could be done effectively to topple the regime is a total embargo on all trade with Iran. The regime already is under lots of pressure at home by opposition parties and a total embargo would certainly topple the present leadership. The opposition parties in Iran must also be encouraged to continue going into the streets and challenge the regime.
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