Egyptian Revolution : A political Tsunami or a sign of changing realities? - a special EU-Digest report

It all started in a relatively unknown Tunisian town of Hammamet and is now threatening to change political structures of possibly the whole Arab World in the years to come. Political demonstrations are flaring up throughout the Arab world. Anger over authoritarian governments, rising prices and high unemployment has erupted in Yemen, Morocco, Algeria and even Saudi Arabia.

Yes, even Saudi Arabia, one of the economically strongest Arab nations, is a candidate for popular unrest. Saudi Arabia is going through a difficult path of its history and the only things that unite its people apart from religion is its enormous oil money. Democracy was virtually a ‘word’ unknown for many Saudi’s Peoples movements are very rare there till recently, but now, even there, we see manifestations happening. The call for action in this major oil exporter, where public protest is not tolerated, therefore comes as an open defiance of the authoritarian rulers there.

A popular unrest, however, like that what happened in Tunisia or is happening in Egypt now and threatening to start in Yemen, Jordan and elsewhere in the Arab world, is unlikely to happen in Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom is enjoying complete support from energy greedy countries that include the US, the EU, China and India. And as long as Saudi will provides them with oil and without too many complications, the Saudi Kingdom will get the support it needs to fend off any protests from within.

Its different in Egypt. As President Hosni Mubarak fights for survival in the face of rapidly growing protests on the streets of a country he has ruled with an iron hand, diplomats and analysts across the region are bracing for a period of growing instability that presents fresh challenges to a host of players.

"An unexpected turn of events is probably an understatement. Egypt is now witnessing a major political tsunami with consequences for its surrounding region," warns an Arab diplomat from a Middle Eastern country who served in Cairo until last August. Speaking to CBS News on condition of anonymity, the diplomat warned of "a variety of dangers" following a regime change in Egypt. Going forward, he listed the emerging possibilities, ranging from "a significant rise of Islamic militants in Egypt who will take a harder line towards the U.S. and Israel," to "Egypt becoming a symbol of change for others to follow."

While President Mubarak for now appears to be defying the odds, Egypt is becoming increasingly locked in a state of growing paralysis, making a regime change, the longer Mubarak postpones to leave, an ever increasing risk to turn the situation into a bloodbath

The underlying problem in all this is also that historically the West, led by the US and to a certain extend also by  some of the members states of the EU, is speaking out one side of their mouth when it preaches "democracy", and on the other side, when it concerns their "political and security objectives". Even going as far as propping up totalitarian Governments to achieve the latter.  This hypocritical policy, unfortunately, is not only applied to the Middle East, but everywhere else in the world. That party basically is over.

The world is rapidly changing, and like it or not, the West will have to come to terms with this new reality and adjust their long-term strategy accordingly. Today, not one nation on earth has the sole power anymore to set or regulate the state of events in the world. More and more we will see that regional and even global consensus will be required in any potential conflict, be it economic, social or political, to solve problems.  

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