The failure of German chancellor Angela Merkel’s party in a major state election Sunday is another reminder to Democrats of a fundamental reality of politics — in recessions, voters tend to punish the party in charge.
Americans tend to think of their politics as being a thing unto itself — not related to contests elsewhere in the world. But the economic crisis that began in 2008 swept through all the major, developed market economies, and the political waves that have washed through their elections follow a similar pattern.
In Germany’s election, Merkel’s conservative coalition lost big in the country’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, which shows her party won backing from only about one-quarter of voters, down from more than one-third in the last election. The state contest would be the second major one in a row that the Christian Democratic Union and its coalition partners, the Free Democrats, have lost.
Obama and his advisers do have counter-arguments, of course. A
substantial percentage of voters continue to blame former president
George W. Bush, not Obama, for the country’s economic troubles. And a
major theme of Obama’s campaign lately has been that Romney’s policies,
far from providing new leadership, would simply mark a return to Bush’s
policies. That argument could help Obama retain his job this fall —
currently he leads narrowly in most polls — but if he does so, he will
have bucked a worldwide trend.
Read more: Analysis: European elections a warning to Obama - latimes.com
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