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9/29/13

Is the euro the next currency battleground?

If the Federal Reserve's unprecedented quantitative easing program started a currency war, the euro may offer the next battleground.

The euro zone's policy makers are set to launch the next salvo in a move to push down euro's value, said Jens Nordvig, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Nomura and the author of "The Fall of the Euro."

In 2010, Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega popularized the phrase "currency wars" after developed nations, such as the U.S. and the euro zone, rolled out a series of easing measures to bolster their exports by weakening their currencies, which pushed up emerging market currencies.

But for now, the euro is locked into a bit of a stalemate while the market watches for policy signals from the Federal Reserve, Nordvig said. He also expects the euro's status as a reserve currency and one which benefits from some "flight to quality" flows to provide a bolster, with the euro possibly rising as high as 1.37 against the dollar in the near term. It's currently trading around 1.35.

The flood of money into European stocks, more than $200 billion so far this year, is also keeping the currency strong, Nordvig noted.

When it comes to euro strength, "I wouldn't fight it right now," he said, although he noted the currency's direction may change once economic data stops improving.

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