Angela Merkel's victory means both policy continuity and institutional stasis for Europe. Her European policy of fiscal austerity and debt sharing on German terms will undoubtedly continue. Merkel's, and by extension Europe's, primary strategy now is to wait for economic growth to return and slowly ease the debt burden and unemployment crisis in southern Europe.
This is a scenario that now seems more likely than not, though continued global economic recovery is hardly assured. Moreover, any return to growth in Europe is likely to be slow, shallow and insufficient to dramatically improve the fiscal picture in the South.
Talk of fiscal and banking union will continue, but unless there is a renewal of the euro crisis - or more likely a political crisis arising from the pain of austerity - there will be only modest reforms on these fronts, particularly so long as Merkel is chancellor.
She has made it clear that she is not interested in grand institutional reforms, whether domestic or European. Indeed, her approach of muddling through - finding immediate fixes as problems appear - staved off the collapse of the euro while also enhancing her popularity at home. The lesson for Chancellor Merkel is surely to follow this same path going forward, and the expected coalition with the Social Democrats seems unlikely to change Berlin's basic European policy.
The problem for Europe is that Merkel's muddling through strategy will likely suffice for only a few more years (and that assumes growth will resume): The eurozone's deep structural and political problems will eventually need bolder reforms if it is to hold together in current form, and this seems unlikely to happen so long as Merkel remains Chancellor.
Like most Germans, most policymakers in Washington credit Merkel for steering Europe out of its crisis and therefore regard her as America's best friend in Europe. And Obama needs all the friends he can find right now since he is fighting on two fronts and cannot manage a third.
Read more: Obama’s best friend in Europe | World | DW.DE | 25.09.2013
This is a scenario that now seems more likely than not, though continued global economic recovery is hardly assured. Moreover, any return to growth in Europe is likely to be slow, shallow and insufficient to dramatically improve the fiscal picture in the South.
Talk of fiscal and banking union will continue, but unless there is a renewal of the euro crisis - or more likely a political crisis arising from the pain of austerity - there will be only modest reforms on these fronts, particularly so long as Merkel is chancellor.
She has made it clear that she is not interested in grand institutional reforms, whether domestic or European. Indeed, her approach of muddling through - finding immediate fixes as problems appear - staved off the collapse of the euro while also enhancing her popularity at home. The lesson for Chancellor Merkel is surely to follow this same path going forward, and the expected coalition with the Social Democrats seems unlikely to change Berlin's basic European policy.
The problem for Europe is that Merkel's muddling through strategy will likely suffice for only a few more years (and that assumes growth will resume): The eurozone's deep structural and political problems will eventually need bolder reforms if it is to hold together in current form, and this seems unlikely to happen so long as Merkel remains Chancellor.
Like most Germans, most policymakers in Washington credit Merkel for steering Europe out of its crisis and therefore regard her as America's best friend in Europe. And Obama needs all the friends he can find right now since he is fighting on two fronts and cannot manage a third.
Read more: Obama’s best friend in Europe | World | DW.DE | 25.09.2013
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