ISN Security Watch - Evolving geopolitics of the US, EU and China - by Richard Carney and Richard A Bitzinger

EU forces in Lebanon
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Evolving geopolitics of the US, EU and China-by Richard Carney and Richard A Bitzinger

While relations between these countries will vary according to specific issues, we contend that the overall relationship will lean towards the formation of a broadly bipolar geopolitical structure with China and the EU on one side, and with the US, Japan and India on the other.

Although the mishandling of post-invasion Iraq has diminished the US' standing, its economic and military might remain dominant. However, China's rise may undercut US influence in certain areas, particularly within Asia. Unsurprisingly, the US is deeply concerned with containing China's hard and soft power influence in the region. Indeed, American foreign policy towards China, as well as its focus on terrorism, seems likely to guide the US' strategic role in Asia - and globally - for some time to come.

What about the EU? As a result of America's unilateralist foreign policies during the Bush administration, Europe has grown increasingly disenchanted with its military dependence on and partnership with the US. Because America is likely to remain more focused on combating terrorism than is Europe, Europeans are likely to remain unsupportive of US foreign policies. Consequently, Europe has begun developing a common, independent security and defence policy, and has moved towards forming military capabilities that are less reliant on US support. This includes the establishment of a European Defence Agency (EDA) and the creation of a 60,000-soldier European Rapid Reaction Force. Additionally, the EU does not have any hard power aspirations in Asia or seek to project military influence in the region, nor does it share the US' concerns about curbing China's growing power projection capabilities. In particular, Washington has not been able to adequately convince the Europeans why and how China constitutes an actual or potential threat to Europe.