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5/23/10

US Economy: Next Stop: Double-Dip Recession? - by Matt Koppenheffer

Though the National Bureau of Economic Research -- the folks that call the official beginning and end of economic cycles -- has yet to declare the recession ended, the U.S. economy has definitely shifted trajectory since its 2007-to-2009 plunge. Even if we set economic indicators aside, the stock market has definitely registered its vote in favor of a recovering economy.

But like Die Hard's John McClane, the global economy just can't seem to avoid trouble. And nasty trouble at that. As a result, many market-watchers continue to see the potential for the U.S. to slip back into recession in the coming quarters.

Big banks like Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) appear to be moving in the right direction, but they're also still being fed ridiculously cheap capital thanks to the rock-bottom federal funds interest rate. It also seems questionable at best whether the U.S. housing market is really on the mend. Indicators have shown movement in the right direction, but the market has also been significantly goosed by handouts from Uncle Sam.

And while it may not be useful to try and compare the U.S. economy to that of Greece, it's tough to ignore the fact that the cancer in that country's economy -- a hefty debt load and big budget deficits -- can also be found right here in the U.S. of A.

For more: Next Stop: Double-Dip Recession?

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