The expectation that most American children younger than 14 today will live to see their 100th birthdays is beginning to seem a lot less far-fetched to many researchers who study worldwide longevity trends.
Read more: Century-long lifespans present challenges | HeraldTribune.com
Even now, one prominent scientist says the “life expectancy revolution” is giving us “roughly a 10-year postponement” of death.
“Mortality is being shifted outward,” said James Vaupel, director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. “All you have to do is look at the historical change in the start of old age, the point when your chance of death rises above 1 percent. For Swedish women in 1950 this happened at age 57; in 1960 it was age 63, and in 1970 it was 68.”
The prospect of living to 100 stirs up lots of emotions, but it is especially daunting for actuaries — the folks who juggle sophisticated math equations to set the prices and payouts for pensions, annuities, life insurance and long-term care policies.
If they bet wrong on when baby boomers will die, the insurance and financial services industries could be in turmoil.
Lately, their normally quiet and careful profession has experienced a dramatic upheaval: In the last 10 years, according to best estimates, the number of people over the age of 110 appears to have doubled.
Read more: Century-long lifespans present challenges | HeraldTribune.com
No comments:
Post a Comment