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3/10/20

USA economic meltdown is inevitable: A market crash was coming, even before coronavirus - by Steven Pearlstein


This is what panic selling looks like. When everyone wants to sell and almost nobody wants to buy, prices suddenly stop having much to do with the underlying value of whatever it is that is being traded. As the expression goes on Wall Street, nobody wants to try to catch a falling knife.

But it’s even worse than that when most of these stocks, bonds and derivatives have been purchased with borrowed money. The wiseguys who now dominate the daily trading on Wall Street — the hedge funds and private equity funds — typically put down $1 or $2 of their own and their investors’ money for every $10 worth of the securities they purchase.

Ultimately, all of these pieces of paper that are furiously being traded on financial markets are tied to some company or some household in the real economy. And that is where you run into the second problem. For it turns out that those companies and households also hold record amounts of debt, which makes them sensitive to any reduction in their sales or profits or normal income flows. So even the prospect of an economic slowdown causes them to save more and spend and invest less. While that is perfectly rational behavior on the part of any business or household, when everyone does it at the same time, it becomes something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, turning what might have been a modest slowdown in the economy into a full-blown recession.

Note -EU digest: as the Washington Post reports The coronavirus panic could threaten a $10 trillion mountain of corporate debt, unleashing a cycle of layoffs and business spending cuts that would hit the economy just as some analysts are warning of a recession.  Using a broad measure of business liabilities, the ratio of debt to assets is at its highest in 20 years, according to the Federal Reserve. One potential trouble spot lies in the rapid growth of “leveraged loans,” made by top banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to scores of cash-short companies.

Read more at: A market crash was coming, even before coronavirus - The Washington Post

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