US Economy:Trump Economic Plan Would Send U.S. Economy To Most Severe Recession Since Early 1980's - by Avi Tiomkin

Comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan is wrong and misleading. The two eras are diametrically different in most respects. Rising budget deficits, interest rates and dollar will hit U.S. economy and financial markets hard.

Global economic slowdown is compounded as the zero-interest-rate driven expansive-monetary policy's effects dissipate, while the negative attributes of this policy grow more influential.

This is a process that both inflicts current damages on the global economy and gains momentum as it progresses. Vis-a-vis Asian currencies including China, the dollar is as strong as its 2009 levels, let alone Canada, Mexico, Europe and South America.

This will inexorably hurt U.S. exports, generate an increase in imports and will create deflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.

Read more: Trump Economic Plan Would Send U.S. Economy To Most Severe Recession Since Early 1980s

Turkey: Tourist Industry: Turkish tourism sector expects $12 bln loss in revenue - by Erdal Sağlam

Istanbul -European side Bosphorus

Tourism representatives have said 2016 has been “much worse” than the predicted “worst case scenario,” noting the revenue loss in the sector would likely surge to $12 billion over the year.

The current problems, which have risen amid escalating security concerns and a significant decrease in the number of Russian tourists, will likely impact other sectors, including the agriculture sector, and push up the unemployment rate across the country, according to sector representatives.

The head of the Antalya Chamber of Trade and Industry (ATSO), Davut Çetin, said the number of Russian tourists has almost zeroed over this year and they expected a significant drop in the number of arrivals from Europe, mainly from Germany, after a series of terror attacks which recently hit Turkey.

He noted the organization submitted various scenarios to the government after the Russian crisis erupted, but only optimistic scenarios were shared with the public.

“We are at a point which is much worse than what we had earlier predicted in our worst case scenario,” he noted at a meeting late March 18.

The vice president of the organization and the head of the Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers’ Association (AKTOB), Yusuf Hacısüleyman, said they predicted a loss of $8 billion in revenue in their previous scenario upon the predicted loss of around 4 million tourists following the jet crisis with Russia, by presuming the spending per capita at $1,000 plus the multiplier effect at 1.87.

“With the addition of the expected losses from the European market, we have now revised our potential revenue losses to $12 billion,” he said one day before another terror attack in Istanbul, which killed at least four foreign nationals in central Istanbul on March 19.

Hacısüleyman said the rising number of security warnings for Turkey by Western countries has spurred further losses in the sector, noting that the German Travel Association (DRV) canceled a four-day meeting scheduled in April in the Aegean resort of Kuşadası.

“When travel agencies canceled their meetings over security concerns, we cannot wait for arrivals from Germany to Turkey,” he added.

He noted that the number of European tourists may decline by almost half over this year, adding that the number of Iranian tourists is expected to decrease to 30,000 over this year from around 45,000 last year.

Spain will lure much more tourists than it did earlier this year, and may reach around 80 million tourists, according to sector representatives. Another popular destination will be Greece, they added.

Çetin noted many hoteliers would not open their hotels this year, and around 80,000-100,000 job losses are expected in Antalya alone.

He said the problems in the tourism sector have already started to spillover to other sectors, mainly the agricultural sector, and the losses will become more visible by May and the following months. 

Read more: Turkish tourism sector expects $12 bln loss in revenue - TOURISM

Major problems persist in global economy - Jeremy Peat

My column published at the outset of 2015 made very depressing reading - the dismal economist at work.

Subsequently I have been reflecting as to whether the doom and gloom was overdone. On balance that looks not to be the case. Developments externally continue to point to major problems across the global economy; and these will have significant repercussions for the UK and Scotland. Our economies are slowing once more and it is difficult to see new sources of external or internal momentum.

We face a period of decelerating growth coupled with the potential onset of deflation. This should mean that interest rates will stay right where they are now way in to 2017 - good news for some.

However, the prospects for our external facing sectors are poor and consumer confidence will be constrained until real wage growth recovers towards historic levels. David Cameron's much vaunted 'long term economic plan' will not result in sustained, strong and balanced growth while the outside world remains in an increasingly weak and uncertain state.

The key actors in the international economic drama at present are Greece and China. Clearly the latter matters more for the global economy, but the developments in Greece are distinctly relevant to prospects in our major market place - the eurozone - so let us start there

Read more: Major problems persist in global economy | Herald Scotland

Global Economy: The Politics Of Economic Stupidity - by Joseph Stiglitz

In 2014, the world economy remained stuck in the same rut that it has been in since emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. Despite seemingly strong government action in Europe and the United States, both economies suffered deep and prolonged downturns. 

The gap between where they are and where they most likely would have been had the crisis not erupted is huge. In Europe, it increased over the course of the year.

Developing countries fared better, but even there the news was grim. The most successful of these economies, having based their growth on exports, continued to expand in the wake of the financial crisis, even as their export markets struggled. But their performance, too, began to diminish significantly in 2014.

In 1992, Bill Clinton based his successful campaign for the US presidency on a simple slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid.” From today’s perspective, things then do not seem so bad; the typical American household’s income is now lower. But we can take inspiration from Clinton’s effort. 

The malaise afflicting today’s global economy might be best reflected in two simple slogans: “It’s the politics, stupid” and “Demand, demand, demand.”

Read more: The Politics Of Economic Stupidity

Global Economy: I.M.F. Warns of Global Financial Risk From Fiscal Policies - by Landon Thomas jr

As global leaders sounded the alarm about a slowing world economy, a more immediate concern drew the attention of policy makers at the International Monetary Fund’s semiannual meetings last week: inflated asset prices and increasing levels of debt overseas.

Bond markets in the eurozone are booming, debt in China is at historic highs and the United States stock market, even with its sharp fall last week, has been on a tear.

As economists and politicians heap pressure on global central banks to continue, and even escalate, their unusually loose monetary policies in order to spur global demand, the fear that these measures could provoke another market convulsion is spreading.

“A major lesson of the last crisis is that accommodative monetary policy contributed to financial excesses,” said Lucas Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank. “We are pursuing a similar policy for good reason. But there are limits — if you do this for too long, risks in the financial markets will materialize.”

Over the last week this debate has been playing out here: on panels at think tanks, in huddles inside and outside the hulking I.M.F. building and in formal talks between government officials and central bankers.

Mario Draghi, the president of the E.C.B., echoed these concerns on Saturday when he said that beyond concerns about the global economy, one of the main topics of discussion was “increasing financial risk-taking” by investors, especially nonbank institutions.

To a degree, the fund’s warning that the eurozone’s economy, and Germany’s in particular, might face a recession turned what had been an academic discussion into a major political issue.

The outcry for Germany, which has surpassed China as the country with the largest trade surplus in the world, to spend more on infrastructure to revitalize its flagging economy was loud enough. But behind closed doors there was an even harder push for more immediate action: a purchase by the European Central Bank of Italian, Spanish and Greek government bonds, in large quantities.

While the bank has presented a plan to buy securitized corporate bonds, many now think that too few of these securities exist for the plan to make a difference.

Germany, led by its hawkish central bank head, Jens Weidmann, has resisted all moves by the E.C.B. to buy government bonds in bulk.

Read more: I.M.F. Warns of Global Financial Risk From Fiscal Policies - NYTimes.com