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Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts

10/12/22

IMF: the worst still lies ahead

The International Monetary Fund downgraded its 2023 outlook for the world economy, suggesting that next year "will feel like a recession" for many thanks to central bank reactions around the world.   

The lending agency of 190 countries said Tuesday morning that global economic growth would be a meagre 2.7 per cent in 2023, down from the 2.9 per cent they'd estimated in July. For comparison, the world economy grew by six per cent in 2021. The IMF cited Russia's war in Ukraine, chronic inflation pressures, punishing interest rates and the lingering consequences of the global pandemic.

"The worst is yet to come," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

Read more at: https://www.cbc.com

4/14/22

IMF chief: Ukraine war and inflation threaten global economy

The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday that Russia’s war against Ukraine was weakening the economic prospects for most of the world’s countries and called high inflation “a clear and present danger” to the global economy.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the consequences of Russia’s invasion were contributing to economic downgrades for 143 countries, although most of them should continue to grow. The war has disrupted global trade in energy and grain and is threatening to cause food shortages in Africa and Middle East.

Georgieva made her comments in a speech on the eve of next week’s spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington.

Read more at: IMF chief: Ukraine war and inflation threaten global economy | AP News

12/24/21

Suriname: IMF board approves 3-year, $688 mln program for Suriname

The International Monetary Fund approved on Wednesday a three-year, $688 million program for Suriname, with some $55 million enabled for immediate disbursing.

“The program aims to rebuild Suriname’s foreign reserves, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement. “The authorities’ decision to move to a market-determined exchange rate will strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks. This step, together with the program’s catalytic effect on external financing, will address external imbalances and contribute to increasing foreign reserves to prudent levels.”

Read more at: IMF board approves 3-year, $688 mln program for Suriname | Financial Post

6/25/20

USA: Trump,"the Mismanager in chief" strikes again - As Trump talks tariffs, IMF warns protectionism will worsen a dire economic crisis by Don Pittis

There is no crisis so bad that mismanagement cannot make it worse.

That was the one of the key messages Wednesday as the International Monetary Fund sharply downgraded an already dire global economic outlook.

"This is an unprecedented crisis, and this is indeed the worst recession since the Great Depression," said IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath.

Read more at:
As Trump talks tariffs, IMF warns protectionism will worsen a dire economic crisis: Don Pittis |

5/24/20

US Economy: Why the Economy Is Headed for a Post-Coronavirus Depression

 In September 2006, Nouriel Roubini told the International Monetary Fund what it didn’t want to hear. Standing before an audience of economists at the organization’s headquarters, the New York University professor warned that the U.S. housing market would soon collapse — and, quite possibly, bring the global financial system down with it. Real-estate values had been propped up by unsustainably shady lending practices, Roubini explained. Once those prices came back to earth, millions of underwater homeowners would default on their mortgages, trillions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities would unravel, and hedge funds, investment banks, and lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could sink into insolvency.

Of course, the ensuing two years turned Roubini’s prophecy into history, and the little-known scholar of emerging markets into a Wall Street celebrity.

A decade later, “Dr. Doom” is a bear once again. While many investors bet on a “V-shaped recovery,” Roubini is staking his reputation on an L-shaped depression. The economist (and host of a biweekly economic news broadcast) does expect things to get better before they get worse: He foresees a slow, lackluster (i.e., “U-shaped”) economic rebound in the pandemic’s immediate aftermath. But he insists that this recovery will quickly collapse beneath the weight of the global economy’s accumulated debts. Specifically, Roubini argues that the massive private debts accrued during both the 2008 crash and COVID-19 crisis will durably depress consumption and weaken the short-lived recovery. Meanwhile, the aging of populations across the West will further undermine growth while increasing the fiscal burdens of states already saddled with hazardous debt loads. Although deficit spending is necessary in the present crisis, and will appear benign at the onset of recovery, it is laying the kindling for an inflationary conflagration by mid-decade. As the deepening geopolitical rift between the United States and China triggers a wave of deglobalization, negative supply shocks akin those of the 1970s are going to raise the cost of real resources, even as hyperexploited workers suffer perpetual wage and benefit declines. Prices will rise, but growth will peter out, since ordinary people will be forced to pare back their consumption more and more. Stagflation will beget depression. And through it all, humanity will be beset by unnatural disasters, from extreme weather events wrought by man-made climate change to pandemics induced by our disruption of natural ecosystems.

Read more at;
Why the Economy Is Headed for a Post-Coronavirus Depression

5/5/20

World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown

The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support.

Read more at:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

4/16/20

IMF Forecasts Unprecedented Economic Contraction In Latin America And The Caribbean

The IMF also announced country-specific estimates, including a 5.3% plunge in Brazil, the deepest one-year decline in over a century, and a 6.3% fall in Ecuador.

Read more at:
https://www.latinousa.org/2020/04/15/imf-forecasts/

11/23/19

IMF to continue new-loan talks with Ukraine in coming weeks

 The International Monetary Fund said on Saturday it will continue talks with Ukraine about a new support program in coming weeks following significant progress in discussions so far with Kiev.

Read more at
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-imf/imf-to-continue-new-loan-talks-with-ukraine-in-coming-weeks-idUKKBN1XX0DY

10/15/19

IMF: Trump launched Trade Wars cuts global growth to lowest since last financial crises - by David Lawder, Andrea Shalal

The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday, adding that the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved.

11/10/18

EU Economy: British economic growth tipped to be slowest in Europe next year, but rest of European Economies also slowing down - by Richard Partington

The euro area of 19 countries including Germany, France and Italy is forecast to slow from a growth rate of 2.1% this year to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, as the wider region enters a period of weaker growth following the strongest year of the past decade in 2017.

It comes as the wider global economy is unsettled by Donald Trump’s trade disputes with China and Europe, which have reduced demand for manufactured goods and stifled business investment.

Despite the weaker outlook for the British economy, growth figures have shown Britain managing a better performance than the eurozone over recent quarters.

Statistics due on Friday are expected to show UK economic growth of 0.6% for the third quarter. Economists at HSBC believe Germany is likely to record its first drop in quarterly economic output, of 0.1%, for more than three years.

In the IMF’s latest health check on the region, it warned the European economy would probably run into turbulence in the next few years.

The Washington-based fund said all likely Brexit outcomes would have a negative cost for the economy, although it warned a no-deal scenario would have the biggest downsides.

“No-deal Brexit would lead to high trade and non-trade barriers between the UK and the rest of the EU, with negative consequences for growth,” it said.

The IMF also warned the populist Italian government to tackle its high levels of government borrowing before time runs out.

Read more: British economic growth tipped to be slowest in Europe next year | Business | The Guardian

10/9/17

Global Economic Boom Before The Bust?: The Economy Is Humming. Bankers Are Cheering. What Could Go Wrong? - by Landon Thomas jr

For decades, the global economy has been defined by dissonan

There has been the Japanese recession. The financial crises in the United States and Europe. And drama in emerging markets throughout.

But as central bankers, finance ministers and money managers descend on Washington this week for the fall meetings of the International Monetary Fund, they will confront an unusual reality: global markets and economies rising in unison.

Never mind political turmoil, populist uprisings and threats of nuclear war. From Wall Street to Washington, economists have been upgrading their forecasts for the global economy this year, with the consensus now pointing to an expansion of more than 3 percent — up noticeably from 2.6 percent in 2016.

Economists from the I.M.F. are likely to follow suit when the fund releases its biannual report on the global economy on Tuesday.

The rosy numbers are noteworthy. But what’s more startling is that virtually every major developed and emerging economy is growing simultaneously, the first time this has happened in 10 years.

“In terms of positive cycles, it is difficult to find very many precedents here,” said Brian Coulton, the chief economist at Fitch, the debt ratings agency. “It is the strongest growth we have seen since 2010.”

In Japan, a reform-minded government and aggressive action by the central bank have pushed growth to 1.5 percent — up from 0.3 percent three years ago.

In Europe, strong domestic demand in Germany and robust recoveries in countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy are expected to spur 2.2 percent growth in the eurozone. That would be more than double its average annual growth in the previous five years.

"Aggressive infrastructure spending by China; bold economic reforms by countries including Brazil, Indonesia and India; and rising commodities prices (helping countries such as Russia) have spurred growth in emerging markets.

And in the United States, despite doubts about President Trump’s ability to pass a major tax bill, the economy and financial markets chug along.

In fact, one of the few large economies not following an upward path is Britain, whose pending exit from the European Union is taking a toll. Having grown at an average annual pace of just over 2 percent from 2012 to 2016, the British economy is expanding just 1.5 percent this year.

Still, the good news may result in some backslapping this week for policy makers and regulators more accustomed in recent years to putting out financial fires than basking in improved economic well-being.


“The meetings will celebrate this period of synchronized economic growth and calm financial markets,” said Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser to the fund giant Allianz.

There are plenty of reasons to hold off on uncorking the Champagne. Wage gains have been slow in coming. And most experts think the current sweet spot of positive growth, low inflation and accommodating central bank policies could be fleeting. Mr. El-Erian, for example, said he was nervous about several possibilities: that global growth could taper off; that prices of stocks, bonds and other financial assets are unsustainably high; and, most important, that markets might not be prepared when central banks reverse their efforts to stimulate economies by keeping interest rates low and buying huge sums of assets.

But for the time being, investors, economists and policy officials point to a growing quantity of data that highlight the power of this recent burst of economic growth.

Business sentiment in Japan and Europe is at 10-year highs. And last month, manufacturing activity in the United States hit its highest level in 13 years.

A big driver for growth in emerging markets, said Mr. Coulton, the economist at Fitch, has been Chinese imports, which are up more than 10 percent this year. China is the world’s largest consumer of raw materials such as oil, steel and copper, and it is increasingly buying them from emerging economies.

Global portfolio managers like Rajiv Jain of GQG Partners, who oversees $9 billion, have been quick to capitalize, snapping up shares of Russian banks and French construction companies.

“The global economy looks pretty darn good,” Mr. Jain said.

But with interest rates still historically low, investors have been pushing into even riskier assets, including the bonds of emerging-market economies, to eke out returns.

Some countries are taking advantage of the frenzy by issuing more debt. Argentina recently sold so-called century bonds, which don’t come due for 100 years. Jordan and Ukraine issued government bonds that mature in 30 years and 15 years, respectively.

Susan Lund, an expert on global financial trends at the McKinsey Global Institute, said these types of investments from global asset managers tended to be longer term — and thus less destabilizing — than the so-called hot money from commercial banks that contributed to recent debt crises in the United States and Europe.

Are things getting too hot? “We are in a boom today, but we should not forget that the financial system is still relatively unstable,” said Jim Reid, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Mr. Reid, who spices up his market analyses by regaling clients with pop songs on the piano, recently published a detailed study on what he expects will be the causes of the next global financial crisis.

Pick your poison: an abrupt slowdown in China, the rise of populism, debt problems in Japan or an ugly outcome to Britain’s move to leave the European Union.

His overriding worry, though, is that investors and policy makers aren’t prepared for what will happen when global central banks put a halt to their easy-money policies

Since the 2008 crisis, Mr. Reid noted, central banks have accumulated more than $14 trillion in assets — an amount that exceeds the annual output of China by $3 trillion.

What happens when the central banks all start to sell?


7/24/17

Global Economy: IMF cuts 2017 growth forecasts for UK and US - by Larry Elliott

The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the UK economy this year after a weak performance in the first three months of 2017.

In its first downgrade for the UK since the EU referendum in June last year, the IMF said it expected the British economy to expand by 1.7% this year, 0.3 points lower than when it last made predictions in April.

The Fund raised its forecasts for the UK after the Brexit vote as a result of the much stronger than envisaged activity in the second half of 2016. In October 2016, it pencilled in growth of 1.1% for 2017, raising this forecast to 1.5% in January this year and to 2% in April.

Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s economic counsellor, pointed to a marked change in early 2017. He said the UK’s growth forecast had been lowered based on its “tepid performance” so far this year, adding: “The ultimate impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom remains unclear.”

The IMF left its growth forecast for the UK in 2018 unchanged at 1.5% but said one key risk facing the global economy was that the Brexit talks would end in failure.

It contrasted its gloomier outlook for the UK with a rosier forecast for the rest of the EU, with 2017 growth upgrades for the four biggest eurozone countries – Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Germany has been revised up by 0.2 points to 1.8%, France by 0.1 points to 1.5%, while Italy and Spain have both been revised up by 0.5 points to 1.3% and 3.1% respectively.

The Fund produces a world economic outlook in April and October to coincide with its spring and annual meetings, but provides updates in January and July.

Launching the report in Kuala Lumpur, Obstfeld said the IMF had left its global growth forecasts unchanged at 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% for next year, noting that the stronger performance by the eurozone, China and Japan had been offset by weaker performances elsewhere.

“The recovery in global growth that we projected in April is on a firmer footing; there is now no question mark over the world economy’s gain in momentum,” Obstfeld said.

He added that Donald Trump’s failure so far to push through his promised package of tax cuts had dampened US growth prospects.

“From a global growth perspective, the most important downgrade is the United States,” he said.

“Over the next two years, US growth should remain above its longer-run potential growth rate. But we have reduced our forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 to 2.1% because near-term US fiscal policy looks less likely to be expansionary than we believed in April.”

Read more:IMF cuts 2017 growth forecasts for UK and US | Business | The Guardian

7/23/17

IMF conditions weaken labor rights, World Bank labor policy inconsistent - Bretton Woods Project

A March IMF policy paper on Labour and product market reforms in advanced economies: fiscal costs, gains, and support postulated that, “persistently sluggish growth has led to growing policy emphasis on the need for structural reforms that improve the functioning of labour and product markets in advanced economies”. Amongst the reforms considered are “lower entry barriers for firms” and “reducing the level or duration of unemployment benefits where particularly high” during weak cyclical conditions.

Its main findings included that such reforms can raise output and thus strengthen public finances, for example, “unemployment benefit reforms improve fiscal outcomes both indirectly and directly through lower spending.” In line with IMF policy, the report makes a case for temporary fiscal stimulus but only where there is “available fiscal space” (see Update 55), although “a strong commitment to reforms is an essential prerequisite.”

Commenting on the paper, Cambridge University political scientist Bernhard Reinsberg found that “it is laudable that the IMF acknowledged that fiscal stimuli may be necessary not only to stimulate the economy after a financial crisis but also to facilitate structural reform.” However, he questioned the study’s assumption that labor market reforms are necessary to unleash growth. He cautioned that “labor regulations are vital to the protection of worker interests in marginalised places of the global economy. The results presented in the IMF staff note thus cannot be applied to the majority of countries around the globe.”

Read more: IMF conditions weaken labour rights, World Bank labour policy inconsistent - Bretton Woods Project

6/16/17

Greece Economy: A positive agreement for Greece

On 15 June, Greece’s creditors, Eurogroup, acknowledged the achievements of the Greek government on the implementation and outcome of fiscal policy measures.

The release of the next bailout tranche was agreed; more clarity was provided on the debt relief roadmap as well as next steps towards boosting growth.

These developments have delivered a positive signal to the markets and the Greek people, indicating that the Greek economy is steadily exiting the final stages of a longstanding and harrowing financial crisis.

For the first time since 2010, Greece’s creditors have pledged to prioritize a growth-oriented model that entails the participation of the European Investment Bank in medium- and large-scale investment projects, as well as the creation of a Greek Development Bank – a proposal that the Greek government has made since 2015.

The reluctance of the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, to accelerate the conclusion of the bailout review was significantly addressed after the Greek government, the European Commission, the French government and the progressive forces in the European institutions pressured the Eurogroup to agree to Greece’s bailout review.

The French played a mediating role for the need to develop growth policies, so that the Greek economy can start warming its engines.

Read more: A positive agreement for Greece

1/19/17

Britain - Brexit: IMF predicts 'pain' for UK, as banks prepare London exit- by Peter Teffer

Brexit will not be “without pain”, said the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde on Wednesday (18 January), as more reports emerged of bank relocating jobs from London.

Lagarde welcomed UK prime minister Theresa May's speech on Tuesday, telling the BBC “less uncertainty is certainly better for the UK economy and for the rest of the European Union”.
  

4/6/16

EU- Why we must save the EU says Yanis Varoufakis of Greece

The first German word I ever learned was Siemens. It was emblazoned on our sturdy 1950s fridge, our washing machine, the vacuum cleaner – on almost every appliance in my family’s home in Athens. The reason for my parents’ peculiar loyalty to the German brand was my uncle Panayiotis, who was Siemens’ general manager in Greece from the mid-1950s to the late 1970s.

A Germanophile electrical engineer and a fluent speaker of Goethe’s language, Panayiotis had convinced his younger sister – my mother – to take up the study of German; she even planned to spend a year in Hamburg to take up a Goethe Institute scholarship in the summer of 1967.

Alas, on 21 April 1967, my mother’s plans were laid in ruins, along with our imperfect Greek democracy. For in the early hours of that morning, at the command of four army colonels, tanks rolled on to the streets of Athens and other major cities, and our country was soon enveloped in a thick cloud of neo-fascist gloom. It was also the day when Uncle Panayiotis’s world fell apart.

Unlike my dad, who in the late 1940s had paid for his leftist politics with several years in concentration camps, Panayiotis was what today would be referred to as a neoliberal. Fiercely anti-communist, and suspicious of social democracy, he supported the American intervention in the Greek civil war in 1946 (on the side of my father’s jailers). He backed the German Free Democratic party and the Greek Progressive party, which purveyed a blend of free-market economics with unconditional support for Greece’s oppressive US-led state security machine.




The heavy footprint of US agencies in Greek politics, even going so far as to engineer the dismissal of a popular centrist prime minister, Georgios Papandreou, in 1965, seemed to Panayiotis an acceptable trade-off: Greece had given up some sovereignty to western powers in exchange for freedom from a menacing eastern bloc lurking a short driving distance north of Athens. However, on that bleak April day in 1967, Panayiotis’s life was turned upside down.

He simply could not tolerate that “his” people (as he referred to the rightist army officers who had staged the coup and, more importantly, their American handlers) should dissolve parliament, suspend the constitution, and intern potential dissidents (including rightwing democrats) in football stadia, police stations and concentration camps. He had no great sympathy with the deposed centrist prime minister that the putschists and their US puppeteers were trying to keep out of government – but his worldview was torn asunder, leading him to a sudden spurt of almost comical radicalisation.

A few months after the military regime took power, Panayiotis joined an underground group called Democratic Defence, which consisted largely of other establishment liberals like himself – university professors, lawyers, and even a future prime minister. They planted a series of bombs around Athens, taking care to ensure there were no injuries, in order to demonstrate that the military regime was not in full control, despite its clampdown.

For a few years after the coup, Panayiotis appeared – even to his own mother – as yet another professional keeping his head down, minding his own business. No one had an inkling of his double life: corporate man during the day, subversive bomber by night. We were mostly relieved, meanwhile, that Dad had not disappeared again into some concentration camp.

My enduring memory of those years, in fact, is the crackling sound of a radio hidden under a red blanket in the middle of the living room in our Athens home. Every night at around nine, mum and dad would huddle together under the blanket – and upon hearing the muffled jingle announcing the beginning of the programme, followed by the voice of a German announcer, my own six-year-old imagination would travel from Athens to central Europe, a mythical place I had not visited yet except for the tantalising glimpses offered by an illustrated Brothers Grimm book I had in my bedroom.

Deutsche Welle, the German international radio station that my parents were listening to, became their most precious ally against the crushing power of state propaganda at home: a window looking out to faraway democratic Europe. At the end of each of its hour-long special broadcasts on Greece, my parents and I would sit around the dining table while they mulled over the latest news.

I didn’t fully understand what they were discussing, but this neither bored nor upset me. For I was gripped by a sense of excitement at the strangeness of our predicament: that, to find out what was happening in our very own Athens, we had to travel, through the airwaves, and veiled by a red blanket, to a place called Germany.

ur European Union is disintegrating. Should we accelerate the disintegration of a failed confederacy? If one insists that even small countries can retain their sovereignty, as I have done, does this mean Brexit is the obvious course? My answer is an emphatic “No!”

Here is why: if Britain and Greece were not already in the EU, they should most certainly stay out. But, once inside, it is crucial to consider the consequences of a decision to leave. Whether we like it or not, the European Union is our environment – and it has become a terribly unstable environment, which will disintegrate even if a small, depressed country like Greece leaves, let alone a major economy like Britain. Should the Greeks or the Brits care about the disintegration of an infuriating EU? Yes, of course we should care. And we should care very much because the disintegration of this frustrating alliance will create a vortex that will consume us all – a postmodern replay of the 1930s.

It is a major error to assume, whether you are a remain or a leave supporter, that the EU is something constant “out there” that you may or may not want to be part of. The EU’s very existence depends on Britain staying in. Greece and Britain are facing the same three options. The first two are represented aptly by the two warring factions within the Tory party: deference to Brussels and exit.

They are equally calamitous options. Both lead to the same dystopian future: a Europe fit only for those who flourish in times of a great Depression – the xenophobes, the ultra-nationalists, the enemies of democratic sovereignty. The third option is the only one worth going for: staying in the EU to form a cross-border alliance of democrats, which Europeans failed to manage in the 1930s, but which our
 
Read more: Why we must save the EU | Yanis Varoufakis | World news | The Guardian

1/23/16

Economy: Europe is less vulnerable than other regions to China slowdown - by Pierre Moscov

The European recovery remains on track, despite turbulence in China, according to EU Commissioner Pierre Moscovici. But he also warned against complacency.

In an exclusive interview with EurActiv at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Moscovici urged Greece to be more ambitious with its pension reform.

Pierre Moscovici is EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs.
He spoke to EurActiv's Jorge Valero.

You met with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras at the World Economic Forum. The pension reform is the big issue on the table. Are you asking only for some fine-tuning of the reform, or are your objections more substantial?

I had a 15 minute-long meeting with Tsipras, which is a long meeting here in Davos. We are trying to work on what could be a global approach. We did not enter into specifics. It is not up to me to negotiate the precise parameters of a pension reform at this stage.

The Greek authorities and the European partners want to go on in building a success story in Greece, which means a full implementation of the programme, and strong reforms leading to a rapid conclusion of the first review, so that we can go on with the programme, and start the debate on alleviating the debt service under good conditions.

All with the presence of the IMF, which I think is a necessity for the Europeans. The IMF is part of the security of the programme, and a guarantee for its future.

I discussed with Tsirpas how this success story could go on. Of course, I insisted on an approach step by step. This means succeeding in the first step, which is what is necessary to conclude the first review and mostly the pension reform, and the implementation of the privatisation fund.

Given that Europe faces numerous challenges, and it would be difficult to handle another crisis like in the past year, would there be some leeway from the creditors to avoid another Greek tragedy?
We don’t have to alleviate our demands.

We have a roadmap, the memorandum of understanding which is based on the July agreement. We have to fulfill it.

But obviously, the climate and working conditions, the relationship between the institutions, the member states and the Greek government have changed positively since July. To sum up what I said to Alexis Tsipras: we must keep the momentum.

Let’s not enter in the atmosphere of drama or any kind of ‘Grexit’ scenario. We were too close to Grexit in the summer.  We avoided that. We don’t want to re-enter into that. On the contrary, let’s keep the momentum by advancing with the programme.

Therefore, we need an ambitious pension reform. We are not there yet, but I am confident that with goodwill and strong technical manage we can get there.

Read more: Moscovici: Europe is less vulnerable than other regions to China slowdown | EurActiv

11/27/15

QE: Lost In Contradiction: The IMF And Competitive Wage Dumping In The Euro Area - by Ronald Janssen

A staff discussion note published recently by the IMF addresses the argument that squeezing wages across a large part of the euro area is dangerous and deflationary as it will not improve anyone’s relative competitive position while undercutting domestic demand everywhere.

 Since the IMF has always been a staunch advocate of the ongoing euro area experiment of substituting currency devaluation with wages devaluation, it is worth taking a closer look at its work.

The IMF bases its findings on a simulation whereby nominal wage growth in a set of five countries representing an economic weight of 30% of the euro area (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland) is reduced by 2 percentage points over the course of two years. Importantly, this simulation is carried out under the assumption that the ECB’s hands as regards cutting its interest rates are tied because these rates are already hitting the zero mark. It is also assumed that lower wages growth is fully passed on into domestic prices, implying that there are no cuts in real wages.

Note EU-Digest: QE - Money printing presses going full speed and major dangers lie ahead for the US, EU and Japanese economies. When they come they will make the 2007/2009 economic crises look like child's play.

Read more: Lost In Contradiction: The IMF And Competitive Wage Dumping In The Euro Area

8/11/15

Greece & lenders agree on bailout terms with European Commission and IMF

On Tuesday, the Greek Finance Ministry said its government and the international creditors managed to agree on the two major issues – a new privatization fund that will accumulate state assets worth around €50 billion over the next 30 years and the game plan to tackle the problem of overdue loans totaling €90 billion.

Negotiations on the technical agreement will conclude later on Tuesday. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will speak with French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel later today, FT reports.

Earlier, it was reported that the two sides had agreed on a target for 2015 of a primary budget deficit of 0.25 percent of GDP, moving to a primary surplus in 2016 of 0.5 percent of GDP. In 2017, the primary surplus target is 1.75 percent, rising to 3.5 percent in 2018, ANA news agency reported.

On Tuesday, the Greek Finance Ministry said its government and the international creditors managed to agree on the two major issues – a new privatization fund that will accumulate state assets worth around €50 billion over the next 30 years and the game plan to tackle the problem of overdue loans totaling €90 billion.

Negotiations on the technical agreement will conclude later on Tuesday. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will speak with French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel later today, FT reports.

Earlier, it was reported that the two sides had agreed on a target for 2015 of a primary budget deficit of 0.25 percent of GDP, moving to a primary surplus in 2016 of 0.5 percent of GDP. In 2017, the primary surplus target is 1.75 percent, rising to 3.5 percent in 2018, ANA news agency reported.

Read more: Greece & lenders agree on bailout terms – European Commission — RT Business

7/15/15

Greek crisis: Deputy finance minister resigns before bailout vote

It’s official. Nadia Valavani, deputy finance minister, has resigned from Alexis Tsipras’s government just hours before the parliament votes on the bailout package.
 
As flagged earlier, Valavani has told Tsipras that it is “impossible” for her to keep serving in his government, given the austerity measures he had agreed to.

In a letter released by the finance ministry, Valavani warned that Greece faced a “crushing” capitulation at the hands of its creditors in Brussels.

The bailout terms were not a “viable solution” to Greece’s problems, she insisted, warning:
The solution imposed today in such a depressing way is not sustainable for the Greek people and for the country.
Greek crisis: Deputy finance minister resigns before bailout vote - live | Business | The Guardian