t rarely rains in California between March and November. But in 2020, with gruesome irony, a huge storm on 16 August brought not just precipitation but a barrage of lightning that sparked hundreds of blazes across the northern part of the state. One of these fires – the enormous August Complex fire in and beyond the Mendocino National Forest – was responsible for the apocalyptic orange sky above San Francisco in early September. Fire-fighting crews drawn from California’s large prison population – a key source of labour for this dangerous and back-breaking work – were unavailable due to corona-virus outbreaks. Fire crews from up the coast could not come to help, as Oregon and Washington were burning too.
Little relief is in store this year. The winter brought scarce rain, and now a severe drought grips California. The mountains are bare of snow, reservoir levels are dropping – depriving the state of hydroelectric power just as heatwaves test the energy grid – and the hillsides are sun-scorched and brown with combustible dry grass. “Hell”, like “paradise”, is a term used far too easily to describe California. Looking to the coming months in the Golden State, however, “hellish” may be hardly an exaggeration. A punishing season of fire has already begun, with three times as much land burned this year as during the same period in 2020, which was itself the worst year on record.
Politically speaking, California is no longer known as the state that launched the careers of Republican presidents Richard Nixon in 1968 and Ronald Reagan in 1980. Now synonymous in the national consciousness with liberalism, it is known for high taxes and ambitious policies on emissions standards. Emerging from the pandemic, California seems eager to renew its reputation as a progressive leader. With coffers flush with federal stimulus money, the new California budget includes cash for the poor, money to cover missed rent during the pandemic, and funding for childcare.
Read more at
Shades of gold: Why California is a bellwether of the world to come
Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecast. Show all posts
11/14/20
Famine Expected in 2021: Nobel-winning UN agency warns of 'famines of biblical proportions' in 2021
The head of the World Food Program says the Nobel Peace Prize has given the U.N. agency a spotlight and megaphone to warn world leaders that next year is going to be worse than this year, and without billions of dollars “we are going to have famines of biblical proportions in 2021.”
Read more at: Nobel-winning UN agency warns of 'famines of biblical proportions' in 2021 | Euronews
Read more at: Nobel-winning UN agency warns of 'famines of biblical proportions' in 2021 | Euronews
4/25/20
The United States as a Failing State? A Perspective From 2013 - by Stephan Richter
A country's success or failure must be measured against its inherent potential. By Stephan Richter
Read more at:
https://www.theglobalist.com/united-states-failed-state-racism-democracy-inequality-civil-rights-resources/
Read more at:
https://www.theglobalist.com/united-states-failed-state-racism-democracy-inequality-civil-rights-resources/
4/22/20
Global Coronavirus forecast: WHO warns coronavirus to 'be with us for long time':
The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said there
were "worrying upward trends" in early epidemics in parts of Africa and
central and South America, warning that the "virus will be with us for a long time".
More than 2.5 million people around the world have been diagnosed with the coronavirus. At least 178,000 have died, with the US accounting for about a quarter of all deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The United Nations is warning global hunger could double as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, putting 265 million people at risk.
Read more at: WHO warns coronavirus to 'be with us for long time': Live updates | News | Al Jazeera
More than 2.5 million people around the world have been diagnosed with the coronavirus. At least 178,000 have died, with the US accounting for about a quarter of all deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The United Nations is warning global hunger could double as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, putting 265 million people at risk.
Read more at: WHO warns coronavirus to 'be with us for long time': Live updates | News | Al Jazeera
4/16/20
IMF Forecasts Unprecedented Economic Contraction In Latin America And The Caribbean
The IMF also announced country-specific estimates, including a 5.3% plunge in Brazil, the deepest one-year decline in over a century, and a 6.3% fall in Ecuador.
Read more at:
https://www.latinousa.org/2020/04/15/imf-forecasts/
Read more at:
https://www.latinousa.org/2020/04/15/imf-forecasts/
9/5/19
Global economy: Major European Bank expects stocks to drop through the end of the year
This big bank expects stocks to drop through the end of the year—here’s why -
Read complete report at:
https://on.mktw.net/2HLQ1uM
https://on.mktw.net/2HLQ1uM
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3/21/19
8/21/18
The Netherlands - Weather: Four years of hot summers expected in the Netherlands - by Mina Solanki
This year, the Netherlands has experienced an unusually hot summer, with a code orange being issued due to the heat and two heatwaves engulfing the country in a short period of time. Not to mention the drought that did not go unnoticed across the land.
Well, if you thought the weather was just a tad too warm, you won’t have any luck in terms of cooler summers for the next few years. According to a new statistical analysis by KNMI climate researcher Sybren Drijfhout and colleague Florian Sevellec, globally, we are in for another four years of warmer than usual weather.
From now until 2022, the earth will be in the throes of a “warm anomaly”, in addition to the slow advance of global warming due to greenhouse gasses. Although the anomaly may only contribute to temperatures worldwide by a few hundredths of a degree, it could result in heatwaves, extreme weather conditions and hot summers.
Drijfhout credits the coming warm period to a four-year hiatus, roughly between 2010 and 2014, in which the earth’s temperature hardly increased. During this period, it seems as though the extra heat was absorbed by the sea; extra heat which could still be released into the atmosphere, he says. Up until 2022, there is a 70 percent possibility of extra hot summers and higher temperatures in general the world over, the weather model currently reports.
Read more: Four years of hot summers expected in the Netherlands
Well, if you thought the weather was just a tad too warm, you won’t have any luck in terms of cooler summers for the next few years. According to a new statistical analysis by KNMI climate researcher Sybren Drijfhout and colleague Florian Sevellec, globally, we are in for another four years of warmer than usual weather.
From now until 2022, the earth will be in the throes of a “warm anomaly”, in addition to the slow advance of global warming due to greenhouse gasses. Although the anomaly may only contribute to temperatures worldwide by a few hundredths of a degree, it could result in heatwaves, extreme weather conditions and hot summers.
Drijfhout credits the coming warm period to a four-year hiatus, roughly between 2010 and 2014, in which the earth’s temperature hardly increased. During this period, it seems as though the extra heat was absorbed by the sea; extra heat which could still be released into the atmosphere, he says. Up until 2022, there is a 70 percent possibility of extra hot summers and higher temperatures in general the world over, the weather model currently reports.
Read more: Four years of hot summers expected in the Netherlands
7/20/18
Global Economy: Key Takeaways from PIMCO’s Secular Outlook: Rude Awakenings
In case you missed it—given the recent gyrations in Italy and financial markets—we published our Secular Outlook
in May. Difficulties in Argentina and Italy, and President Trump’s
imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the EU, Canada
and Mexico, among other disruptions, are some recent examples of rude
awakenings for complacent financial markets. However, as we lay out in
more detail in the outlook, these events may only be a small precursor
of things to come over the secular horizon. Here are the key takeaways.
Following the three-day Secular Forum with distinguished external speakers and our Global Advisory Board, as well as our subsequent internal discussions, we concluded that we may be witnessing an important turning point: Ten years after the financial crisis, the global economy and financial markets look set to enter a new era of potentially radical change that will make the future look very different from the past.
The post-crisis environment has been characterized by financial repression through regulation; dominant central banks; mostly passive or restrictive fiscal policies; largely uninhibited trade and capital flows; subdued growth and inflation; and low volatility in the macro economy and markets. To be fair, the past decade had its fair share of rude awakenings, but whenever they came along, central banks were quick to step in and prop up markets and economies.
We expect a very different macro landscape to emerge over the next five years—for better or worse. Already, there are important shifts underway: The monetary-fiscal policy mix has been changing, with central banks retreating and fiscal policy becoming more expansionary; the regulatory discussion is moving from the financial to the tech sector; and economic nationalism and protectionism are on the rise. However, bigger disruptions may lie ahead. Here are five potential sources of major rude awakenings for investors over the secular horizon:
Read the full report at: Key Takeaways from PIMCO’s Secular Outlook: Rude Awakenings
Following the three-day Secular Forum with distinguished external speakers and our Global Advisory Board, as well as our subsequent internal discussions, we concluded that we may be witnessing an important turning point: Ten years after the financial crisis, the global economy and financial markets look set to enter a new era of potentially radical change that will make the future look very different from the past.
The post-crisis environment has been characterized by financial repression through regulation; dominant central banks; mostly passive or restrictive fiscal policies; largely uninhibited trade and capital flows; subdued growth and inflation; and low volatility in the macro economy and markets. To be fair, the past decade had its fair share of rude awakenings, but whenever they came along, central banks were quick to step in and prop up markets and economies.
We expect a very different macro landscape to emerge over the next five years—for better or worse. Already, there are important shifts underway: The monetary-fiscal policy mix has been changing, with central banks retreating and fiscal policy becoming more expansionary; the regulatory discussion is moving from the financial to the tech sector; and economic nationalism and protectionism are on the rise. However, bigger disruptions may lie ahead. Here are five potential sources of major rude awakenings for investors over the secular horizon:
Read the full report at: Key Takeaways from PIMCO’s Secular Outlook: Rude Awakenings
3/18/18
USA - Retailing industry:Retailers are filing for bankruptcy at a staggering rate — and these 19 companies could be the next to default -by Hayley Peterson
Retail bankruptcies and defaults hit a peak last year, soaring past
records set during the recession, and things could get even worse this
year, according to the credit-ratings agency S&P Global Ratings.
"We believe defaults in 2018 could match or exceed last year's record level," S&P Global Ratings analyst Robert Shulz wrote in a recent report that identified 20 retailers at risk of defaulting.
The pace of retail liquidations could also pick up this year, he wrote.
"Despite store closures amid the turmoil, the US remains significantly oversaturated with retail stores," he wrote. "Some retailers have made progress towards better aligning their physical footprint to the new reality of physical versus virtual sales, but there is still excess capacity."
Toys R Us will likely become the first retailer to liquidate in 2018. The company filed a motion to liquidate its business on Thursday, meaning it will close or sell its remaining 735 US stores.
Among the bankruptcies so far this year are Bon-Ton Stores, which filed in February, and Bi-Lo, which owns the grocery store chains Winn-Dixie and Tops Friendly Markets.
The girls' jewelry and accessory chain Claire's is reportedly preparing to declare bankruptcy soon as well.
S&P Global Markets has identified the 19 retailers that are most at risk of defaulting next.
Here's the full list.
"We believe defaults in 2018 could match or exceed last year's record level," S&P Global Ratings analyst Robert Shulz wrote in a recent report that identified 20 retailers at risk of defaulting.
The pace of retail liquidations could also pick up this year, he wrote.
"Despite store closures amid the turmoil, the US remains significantly oversaturated with retail stores," he wrote. "Some retailers have made progress towards better aligning their physical footprint to the new reality of physical versus virtual sales, but there is still excess capacity."
Toys R Us will likely become the first retailer to liquidate in 2018. The company filed a motion to liquidate its business on Thursday, meaning it will close or sell its remaining 735 US stores.
Among the bankruptcies so far this year are Bon-Ton Stores, which filed in February, and Bi-Lo, which owns the grocery store chains Winn-Dixie and Tops Friendly Markets.
The girls' jewelry and accessory chain Claire's is reportedly preparing to declare bankruptcy soon as well.
S&P Global Markets has identified the 19 retailers that are most at risk of defaulting next.
Here's the full list.
- 99 Cents Only Stores LLC
- Bluestem Brands, Inc.
- Everest Holdings, LLC
- FULLBEAUTY Brands Holdings Corp.
- J.Crew Group, Inc.
- New Academy Holding Co. LLC
- PetSmart Inc.
- Steak 'n Shake Inc.
- SSH Holdings
- David's Bridal, Inc.
- Neiman Marcus Group
- Evergreen AcqCo 1 LP
- HT Intermediate Holdings Corp.
- Payless
- BKH
- The Fresh Market
- Guitar Center
- Claire's Stores, Inc.
- Sears Holdings
12/30/17
Germany: Here is what 2018 has in store for Germany - by Rose-Anne Clermont
Next year, Germany will still be waiting on a government. But with
everything from an upcoming World Cup to more benefits for parents,
there is a lot to look forward to.
1. Time's up: Merkel has to pick coalition partners
Chancellor Angela Merkel has still yet to successfully form a coalition government, even though federal elections took place three months ago.
With pressure mounting and her popularity waning, Merkel will have to go back to the political negotiating table with her opponents and form a government in 2018.
2. More economic growth, and in some cases, more jobs
Germany's economic upswing is expected to continue, according to a survey by the Institute of German Industry. Of 48 industry associations, two-thirds will continue to see production expansion in 2018.
3. Housing will get more expensive (but not exorbitantly so)
Real estate prices in major German cities will increase but not at the rate we have seen in recent years, Analyse Emperica told German public broadcasting channel ZDF.
4. More benefits for parents
For parents and soon-to-be parents there will also be a few silver linings in 2018, despite January's cloudy weather.
5. Another day off (for one state)
Lower Saxony is set to get an additional national holiday, most likely on Reformation Day, which was a nationwide public holiday in commemoration of Martin Luther's 500th birthday in 2017.
6. Free streaming for online subscription services across the EU
Starting on March 20th, there will be free streaming for users of Netflix, Sky Go or Maxdome - thanks to a change in the European Parliament's rules that previously barred free streaming.
7. More protection when you book holidays online
If you plan on booking your next vacation online, especially if booking multiple services (flights, rental cars, hotels, etc.), there will be more protection to online consumers beginning July 1st 2018.
8. Time for the World Cup
And after what feels like a long wait for many, the World Cup will take place again in June 2018 in Russia, with Germany playing its first match on June 17th against Mexico.
Read more: Here is what 2018 has in store for Germany - The Local
1. Time's up: Merkel has to pick coalition partners
Chancellor Angela Merkel has still yet to successfully form a coalition government, even though federal elections took place three months ago.
With pressure mounting and her popularity waning, Merkel will have to go back to the political negotiating table with her opponents and form a government in 2018.
2. More economic growth, and in some cases, more jobs
Germany's economic upswing is expected to continue, according to a survey by the Institute of German Industry. Of 48 industry associations, two-thirds will continue to see production expansion in 2018.
3. Housing will get more expensive (but not exorbitantly so)
Real estate prices in major German cities will increase but not at the rate we have seen in recent years, Analyse Emperica told German public broadcasting channel ZDF.
4. More benefits for parents
For parents and soon-to-be parents there will also be a few silver linings in 2018, despite January's cloudy weather.
5. Another day off (for one state)
Lower Saxony is set to get an additional national holiday, most likely on Reformation Day, which was a nationwide public holiday in commemoration of Martin Luther's 500th birthday in 2017.
6. Free streaming for online subscription services across the EU
Starting on March 20th, there will be free streaming for users of Netflix, Sky Go or Maxdome - thanks to a change in the European Parliament's rules that previously barred free streaming.
7. More protection when you book holidays online
If you plan on booking your next vacation online, especially if booking multiple services (flights, rental cars, hotels, etc.), there will be more protection to online consumers beginning July 1st 2018.
8. Time for the World Cup
And after what feels like a long wait for many, the World Cup will take place again in June 2018 in Russia, with Germany playing its first match on June 17th against Mexico.
Read more: Here is what 2018 has in store for Germany - The Local
11/29/17
U.S. Economic Forecast: Growth of the economy to continue through 2018
For the first time since the middle of 2014, the US economy has
sustained 3 percent growth for two consecutive quarters, providing
strong momentum into next year. The current Conference Board forecast
calls for 2.8 percent growth during the final quarter of 2017 and 2.5
percent growth in 2018.
This would represent the economy’s best 2-year run since 2005.
Business investment has awakened from the doldrums this year, rising by more than 4 percent after falling into negative territory in 2016. Confidence in the manufacturing sector has been especially strong.
The composition of growth supports a long-term improvement in productivity. Capital equipment has risen at an 8.7 percent annual rate during the past two quarters, while investment in warehouse structures is up more than 20 percent since the end of last year. These investments demonstrate a renewed firm commitment to increased efficiency.
Consumer spending eased a bit in the third quarter, but with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index still strong and housing prices rising, expect a robust holiday season.
One encouraging sign was the pickup in motor vehicle spending thanks to renewed demand following the two hurricanes. Should employment growth rebound quickly from last month’s storm related decline, tighter labor markets should translate into a renewed wage acceleration which could boost spending late this year or into 2018. The possibility of federal income tax cuts could do the same.
The economy enters 2018 in good position to maintain strong growth from 2017.
Current Fed chair Janet Yellen and new Fed chair nominee Jerome Powell may raise rates slightly faster as a result. These expectations have led long-term rates to rise modestly.
The dollar has also started strengthening since early September after weakening through much of 2017, creating less favorable terms of trade. Higher capital costs and the possibility of a less supportive external environment for growth have not rattled the market yet.
With growth prospects strong for 2018, profits should grow robustly as well, rewarding those businesses that increase investment levels.
Read more: U.S. Forecast | The Conference Board
This would represent the economy’s best 2-year run since 2005.
Business investment has awakened from the doldrums this year, rising by more than 4 percent after falling into negative territory in 2016. Confidence in the manufacturing sector has been especially strong.
The composition of growth supports a long-term improvement in productivity. Capital equipment has risen at an 8.7 percent annual rate during the past two quarters, while investment in warehouse structures is up more than 20 percent since the end of last year. These investments demonstrate a renewed firm commitment to increased efficiency.
Consumer spending eased a bit in the third quarter, but with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index still strong and housing prices rising, expect a robust holiday season.
One encouraging sign was the pickup in motor vehicle spending thanks to renewed demand following the two hurricanes. Should employment growth rebound quickly from last month’s storm related decline, tighter labor markets should translate into a renewed wage acceleration which could boost spending late this year or into 2018. The possibility of federal income tax cuts could do the same.
The economy enters 2018 in good position to maintain strong growth from 2017.
Current Fed chair Janet Yellen and new Fed chair nominee Jerome Powell may raise rates slightly faster as a result. These expectations have led long-term rates to rise modestly.
The dollar has also started strengthening since early September after weakening through much of 2017, creating less favorable terms of trade. Higher capital costs and the possibility of a less supportive external environment for growth have not rattled the market yet.
With growth prospects strong for 2018, profits should grow robustly as well, rewarding those businesses that increase investment levels.
Read more: U.S. Forecast | The Conference Board
11/13/17
OPEC - oil demand: OPEC revises world oil demand forecasts up
World oil demand growth in 2017 was adjusted higher from the previous
month by 74,000 barrels per day (b/d), mainly to reflect
better-than-expected data from China in the third quarter of 2017, OPEC
said in its November Oil Market Report.
“As such, world oil demand growth for 2017 now stands at 1.53 million b/d to average 96.94 million b/d,” said the cartel.
For 2018, OPEC expects global oil demand growth at around 1.51 million b/d, revised up by 0.13 million b/d from the previous month’s expectations reflecting the improved expectations from the European members of the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD Europe), OECD Asia Pacific, China, India and some African countries.
Total oil demand is projected to average 98.45 million b/d in 2018, said the cartel.
Read more: OPEC revises world oil demand forecasts up
“As such, world oil demand growth for 2017 now stands at 1.53 million b/d to average 96.94 million b/d,” said the cartel.
For 2018, OPEC expects global oil demand growth at around 1.51 million b/d, revised up by 0.13 million b/d from the previous month’s expectations reflecting the improved expectations from the European members of the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD Europe), OECD Asia Pacific, China, India and some African countries.
Total oil demand is projected to average 98.45 million b/d in 2018, said the cartel.
Read more: OPEC revises world oil demand forecasts up
1/31/17
USA: A futuristic Outlook: How Donald Trump Could Build an Autocracy in the U.S. -
t’s 2021, and President Donald Trump
will shortly be sworn in for his second term. The 45th president has
visibly aged over the past four years. He rests heavily on his daughter
Ivanka’s arm during his infrequent public appearances.
Fortunately for him, he did not need to campaign hard for reelection. His has been a popular presidency: Big tax cuts, big spending, and big deficits have worked their familiar expansive magic.
Wages have grown strongly in the Trump years, especially for men without a college degree, even if rising inflation is beginning to bite into the gains. The president’s supporters credit his restrictive immigration policies and his TrumpWorks infrastructure program.
The president’s critics, meanwhile, have found little hearing for their protests and complaints. A Senate investigation of Russian hacking during the 2016 presidential campaign sputtered into inconclusive partisan wrangling. Concerns about Trump’s purported conflicts of interest excited debate in Washington but never drew much attention from the wider American public.
Allegations of fraud and self-dealing in the TrumpWorks program, and elsewhere, have likewise been shrugged off. The president regularly tweets out news of factory openings and big hiring announcements: “I’m bringing back your jobs,” he has said over and over. Voters seem to have believed him—and are grateful.
ost Americans intuit that their president and his relatives have become vastly wealthier over the past four years. But rumors of graft are easy to dismiss. Because Trump has never released his tax returns, no one really knows.
Anyway, doesn’t everybody do it? On the eve of the 2018 congressional elections, WikiLeaks released years of investment statements by prominent congressional Democrats indicating that they had long earned above-market returns. As the air filled with allegations of insider trading and crony capitalism, the public subsided into weary cynicism. The Republicans held both houses of Congress that November, and Trump loyalists shouldered aside the pre-Trump leadership.
The business community learned its lesson early. “You work for me, you don’t criticize me,” the president was reported to have told one major federal contractor, after knocking billions off his company’s stock-market valuation with an angry tweet. Wise business leaders take care to credit Trump’s personal leadership for any good news, and to avoid saying anything that might displease the president or his family.
The media have grown noticeably more friendly to Trump as well. The proposed merger of AT&T and Time Warner was delayed for more than a year, during which Time Warner’s CNN unit worked ever harder to meet Trump’s definition of fairness. Under the agreement that settled the Department of Justice’s antitrust complaint against Amazon, the company’s founder, Jeff Bezos, has divested himself of The Washington Post. The paper’s new owner—an investor group based in Slovakia—has closed the printed edition and refocused the paper on municipal politics and lifestyle coverage.
Meanwhile, social media circulate ever-wilder rumors. Some people believe them; others don’t. It’s hard work to ascertain what is true.
Nobody’s repealed the First Amendment, of course, and Americans remain as free to speak their minds as ever—provided they can stomach seeing their timelines fill up with obscene abuse and angry threats from the pro-Trump troll armies that police Facebook and Twitter. Rather than deal with digital thugs, young people increasingly drift to less political media like Snapchat and Instagram.
Trump-critical media do continue to find elite audiences. Their investigations still win Pulitzer Prizes; their reporters accept invitations to anxious conferences about corruption, digital-journalism standards, the end of nato, and the rise of populist authoritarianism. Yet somehow all of this earnest effort feels less and less relevant to American politics. President Trump communicates with the people directly via his Twitter account, ushering his supporters toward favorable information at Fox News or Breitbart.
Read more: How Donald Trump Could Build an Autocracy in the U.S. - The Atlantic
Fortunately for him, he did not need to campaign hard for reelection. His has been a popular presidency: Big tax cuts, big spending, and big deficits have worked their familiar expansive magic.
Wages have grown strongly in the Trump years, especially for men without a college degree, even if rising inflation is beginning to bite into the gains. The president’s supporters credit his restrictive immigration policies and his TrumpWorks infrastructure program.
The president’s critics, meanwhile, have found little hearing for their protests and complaints. A Senate investigation of Russian hacking during the 2016 presidential campaign sputtered into inconclusive partisan wrangling. Concerns about Trump’s purported conflicts of interest excited debate in Washington but never drew much attention from the wider American public.
Allegations of fraud and self-dealing in the TrumpWorks program, and elsewhere, have likewise been shrugged off. The president regularly tweets out news of factory openings and big hiring announcements: “I’m bringing back your jobs,” he has said over and over. Voters seem to have believed him—and are grateful.
ost Americans intuit that their president and his relatives have become vastly wealthier over the past four years. But rumors of graft are easy to dismiss. Because Trump has never released his tax returns, no one really knows.
Anyway, doesn’t everybody do it? On the eve of the 2018 congressional elections, WikiLeaks released years of investment statements by prominent congressional Democrats indicating that they had long earned above-market returns. As the air filled with allegations of insider trading and crony capitalism, the public subsided into weary cynicism. The Republicans held both houses of Congress that November, and Trump loyalists shouldered aside the pre-Trump leadership.
The business community learned its lesson early. “You work for me, you don’t criticize me,” the president was reported to have told one major federal contractor, after knocking billions off his company’s stock-market valuation with an angry tweet. Wise business leaders take care to credit Trump’s personal leadership for any good news, and to avoid saying anything that might displease the president or his family.
The media have grown noticeably more friendly to Trump as well. The proposed merger of AT&T and Time Warner was delayed for more than a year, during which Time Warner’s CNN unit worked ever harder to meet Trump’s definition of fairness. Under the agreement that settled the Department of Justice’s antitrust complaint against Amazon, the company’s founder, Jeff Bezos, has divested himself of The Washington Post. The paper’s new owner—an investor group based in Slovakia—has closed the printed edition and refocused the paper on municipal politics and lifestyle coverage.
Meanwhile, social media circulate ever-wilder rumors. Some people believe them; others don’t. It’s hard work to ascertain what is true.
Nobody’s repealed the First Amendment, of course, and Americans remain as free to speak their minds as ever—provided they can stomach seeing their timelines fill up with obscene abuse and angry threats from the pro-Trump troll armies that police Facebook and Twitter. Rather than deal with digital thugs, young people increasingly drift to less political media like Snapchat and Instagram.
Trump-critical media do continue to find elite audiences. Their investigations still win Pulitzer Prizes; their reporters accept invitations to anxious conferences about corruption, digital-journalism standards, the end of nato, and the rise of populist authoritarianism. Yet somehow all of this earnest effort feels less and less relevant to American politics. President Trump communicates with the people directly via his Twitter account, ushering his supporters toward favorable information at Fox News or Breitbart.
Read more: How Donald Trump Could Build an Autocracy in the U.S. - The Atlantic
11/7/16
US Presidential election: five scenarios that could play out - by Tom McCarthy
With less than 24 hours before election day, Tom McCarthy predicts and
considers five possible results – each named after an imaginary
electoral cocktail.
Read the complete McCarthy report click here: US election: five scenarios that could play out | US news | The Guardian
Read the complete McCarthy report click here: US election: five scenarios that could play out | US news | The Guardian
1/6/16
Is the EU imploding?The Europe Question In 2016 - by Nouriel Roubini
At the cusp of the
new year, we face a world in which geopolitical and geo-economic risks
are multiplying. Most of the Middle East is ablaze, stoking speculation
that a long
Sunni-Shia war (like Europe’s Thirty Years’ War between
Catholics and Protestants) could be at hand.
China’s rise is fueling a
wide range of territorial disputes in Asia and challenging America’s
strategic leadership in the region. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has
apparently become a semi-frozen conflict, but one that could reignite
at any time.
There is also the
chance of another epidemic, as outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Ebola, and other
infectious diseases have shown in recent years. Cyber-warfare is a
looming threat as well, and non-state actors and groups are creating
conflict and chaos from the Middle East to North and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Last, but certainly not least, climate change is already causing
significant damage, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent
and lethal.
Yet it is Europe that
may turn out to be the ground zero of geopolitics in 2016. For
starters, a Greek exit from the eurozone may have been only postponed,
not prevented, as pension and other structural reforms put the country
on a collision course with its European creditors. “Grexit,” in turn,
could be the beginning of the end of the monetary union, as investors
would wonder which member – possibly even a core country (for example,
Finland) – will be the next to leave.
If Grexit does occur,
the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU may become more likely. Compared
to a year ago, the probability of “Brexit” has increased, for several
reasons. The recent terrorist attacks in Europe have made the UK even
more isolationist, as has the migration crisis. Under Jeremy Corbyn’s
leadership, Labour is more Euroskeptic. And Prime Minister David Cameron
has painted himself into a corner by demanding EU reforms that even the
Germans – who are sympathetic to the UK – cannot accept. To many in
Britain, the EU looks like a sinking ship.
If Brexit were to
occur, other dominos would fall. Scotland might decide to leave the UK,
leading to the breakup of Britain. This could inspire other separatist
movements – perhaps starting in Catalonia – to push even more forcefully
for independence. And the EU’s Nordic members may decide that with the
UK gone, they, too, would be better off leaving.
As for terrorism, the
sheer number of homegrown jihadists means that the question for Europe
is not whether another attack will occur, but when and where. And
repeated attacks could sharply reduce business and consumer confidence
and stall Europe’s fragile economic recovery.
Those who argue that
the migration crisis also poses an existential threat to Europe are
right. But the issue is not the million newcomers entering Europe in
2015. It is the 20 million more who are displaced, desperate, and
seeking to escape violence, civil war, state failure, desertification,
and economic collapse in large parts of the Middle East and Africa. If
Europe is unable to find a coordinated solution to this problem and
enforce a common external border, the Schengen Agreement will collapse
and internal borders between the EU member states will reappear.
Note EU-Digest: Europeans must keep history in mind when looking at the future - united we stand - divided we fail - There is no alternative.
Note EU-Digest: Europeans must keep history in mind when looking at the future - united we stand - divided we fail - There is no alternative.
12/26/15
Spain: Another Election in Early 2016? - Holger Schmieding
Do Spaniards want more reforms – or do they want to reverse some of
the reforms that have helped to put the Spanish economy back on track?
At the national election on Sunday, Spanish voters gave no clear answer.
Instead, uncertainty now reigns supreme in Madrid. Forming a new government will be tricky, finding a coalition that could last a full four-year term could be quite difficult indeed.
While much is at stake for Spain, the risk that any new government in Madrid could adopt policies that would jeopardize Spain’s place in the euro still looks small.
Roughly in line with the most recent opinion polls, Prime Minister Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party (around 29%) and the opposition Socialists (22%) lost as many votes as expected.
After a harsh adjustment crisis and allegations of sleaze against these two traditional parties that had dominated Spain for the last few decades, many voters turned to two upstart protest parties.
Read more: Spain: Another Election in Early 2016? - The Globalist
Instead, uncertainty now reigns supreme in Madrid. Forming a new government will be tricky, finding a coalition that could last a full four-year term could be quite difficult indeed.
While much is at stake for Spain, the risk that any new government in Madrid could adopt policies that would jeopardize Spain’s place in the euro still looks small.
Roughly in line with the most recent opinion polls, Prime Minister Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party (around 29%) and the opposition Socialists (22%) lost as many votes as expected.
After a harsh adjustment crisis and allegations of sleaze against these two traditional parties that had dominated Spain for the last few decades, many voters turned to two upstart protest parties.
Read more: Spain: Another Election in Early 2016? - The Globalist
4/15/15
Global Economy: IMF ‘complex forces’ are shaping world economy with growth moderate
The International Monetary Fund has issued a warning that global growth remains fragile and moderate.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook for 2015 says the prospects for advanced economies are improving, but only slightly, while emerging markets will see a slowdown.
Oil exporting nations will also experience a difficult year.
Olivier Blanchard is Chief Economist for the IMF says: “An unusually complex set of forces are shaping the world economy. Some such as the decline in the price of oil and the exchange rate movement are highly visible. But some from the legacies of the crisis that are hurting potential growth are less visible, but play a really important role behind the scenes.”
Globally growth is expected to be up on 2015, but some countries are being held to ransom by climatic conditions, such as drought in Brazil.
India is set to grow by 7.5 percent with the US hitting the 3.1 percent growth mark.
Russia is being squeezed by both falling oil prices and the sanctions and instability surrounding the situation in Ukraine.
On the bright side the IMF believes that despite a slowdown of growth in emerging markets in 2015 that is set to change and will drive global growth up to around 3.8 percent for 2016.
Read more: IMF ‘complex forces’ are shaping world economy with growth moderate | euronews, economy
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook for 2015 says the prospects for advanced economies are improving, but only slightly, while emerging markets will see a slowdown.
Oil exporting nations will also experience a difficult year.
Olivier Blanchard is Chief Economist for the IMF says: “An unusually complex set of forces are shaping the world economy. Some such as the decline in the price of oil and the exchange rate movement are highly visible. But some from the legacies of the crisis that are hurting potential growth are less visible, but play a really important role behind the scenes.”
Globally growth is expected to be up on 2015, but some countries are being held to ransom by climatic conditions, such as drought in Brazil.
India is set to grow by 7.5 percent with the US hitting the 3.1 percent growth mark.
Russia is being squeezed by both falling oil prices and the sanctions and instability surrounding the situation in Ukraine.
On the bright side the IMF believes that despite a slowdown of growth in emerging markets in 2015 that is set to change and will drive global growth up to around 3.8 percent for 2016.
Read more: IMF ‘complex forces’ are shaping world economy with growth moderate | euronews, economy
2/2/15
The $4 trillion question for the US economy - by Jeff Cox
Business investment has played an integral role in hopes that a
bustling U.S. economy would light the way for the rest of the world in
2015.
Tumbling gas prices, a newly resurgent U.S. dollar and a weak-spending consumer have taken considerable luster off that picture.
In fact, companies reporting quarterly earnings are predicting not robust times ahead but rather tepid profit growth, with a cornerstone of those forecasts being a drop, not a rise, in capital expenditures, or capex.
Goldman Sachs lowered its capex forecast from a gain of 6 percent to a decline of 3 percent, a stunning turnaround that the firm attributed primarily to weakened energy companies that have suffered from oil's decline. The number represents the worst figure since the financial crisis days of 2009.
"We expect total energy capex will collapse by 25 percent in 2015," Goldman said in a report for clients. "The sector accounts for 33 percent of S&P 500 capex and should drag total S&P 500 capital expenditure growth into negative territory."
"Consumers appear to be somewhat fatigued in their spending patterns, pulling back noticeably at the end of the year despite lower gas prices," Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Sterne Agee, said in a note. "In the end, low gas prices will provide only a temporary boost while the key equation in terms of long-term success remains organic job and sustainable income growth."
Read more: The $4 trillion question for the US economy
Tumbling gas prices, a newly resurgent U.S. dollar and a weak-spending consumer have taken considerable luster off that picture.
In fact, companies reporting quarterly earnings are predicting not robust times ahead but rather tepid profit growth, with a cornerstone of those forecasts being a drop, not a rise, in capital expenditures, or capex.
Goldman Sachs lowered its capex forecast from a gain of 6 percent to a decline of 3 percent, a stunning turnaround that the firm attributed primarily to weakened energy companies that have suffered from oil's decline. The number represents the worst figure since the financial crisis days of 2009.
"We expect total energy capex will collapse by 25 percent in 2015," Goldman said in a report for clients. "The sector accounts for 33 percent of S&P 500 capex and should drag total S&P 500 capital expenditure growth into negative territory."
"Consumers appear to be somewhat fatigued in their spending patterns, pulling back noticeably at the end of the year despite lower gas prices," Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Sterne Agee, said in a note. "In the end, low gas prices will provide only a temporary boost while the key equation in terms of long-term success remains organic job and sustainable income growth."
Read more: The $4 trillion question for the US economy
1/1/15
Geopolitical Forecasts: What U.S. Intelligence Predicted the World Would Look Like in 2015 - by Urie Friedman
Nine months before the September 11 attacks—and just days after the
Supreme Court halted the Florida recount, handing the presidency to
George W. Bush—U.S. intelligence officials published an 85-page prediction
for what the world would look like in 2015.
It's a world that seems familiar in some ways, and utterly foreign in others. And it's a world in which power is diffusing and decaying—reflecting one of the most significant trends of 2014 and perhaps the coming year as well.
Read more: What U.S. Intelligence Predicted the World Would Look Like in 2015 - The Atlantic
It's a world that seems familiar in some ways, and utterly foreign in others. And it's a world in which power is diffusing and decaying—reflecting one of the most significant trends of 2014 and perhaps the coming year as well.
Read more: What U.S. Intelligence Predicted the World Would Look Like in 2015 - The Atlantic
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