Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Fear of provoking Putin is leading the Western world toward disaster.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that NATO should refrain from enforcing a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine due to the risk of an all-out NATO-Russia war. This view reflects a decades-long misunderstanding of both Russia and Ukraine, and is mired in appeasement thinking. While the window to impose a No-Fly Zone has likely closed, there are still alternatives that could work. The West should implement them without delay.

After the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, the US hastily abandoned the post-Soviet world and moved on to other international challenges. Ironically, this disinvestment meant that it stopped maintaining and developing the very expertise that had allowed America to triumph over the USSR in the first place.

Over the intervening three decades, appeasement has replaced expertise. Whether it was Russia’s brutal wars in Chechnya, the 2008 war with Georgia, or the 2014 invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the West’s approach has frequently been shaped by fear of provoking an already aggrieved Russia.

This has led the West to misread Putin’s Russia again and again. It also caused Western leaders to misinterpret developments in Ukraine. We overestimate Putin and underestimate Ukraine due to limited understanding of the fast-changing dynamics in the post-Soviet region.

Read more at Fear of provoking Putin is leading the Western world toward disaster - Atlantic Council

The UK’s European question is far from over – by Kirsty Hughes

As 2021 begins, the European Union and the United Kingdom have a new relationship, underpinned by their trade and co-operation agreement. This fractures, damages and complicates economic, political and social links between the UK and EU. And, alongside the 2019 withdrawal agreement, it ensures there is a customs and regulatory border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland—meaning the fractures go within as well as beyond the UK.

This attempted distancing of the UK from the rest of Europe, in the pursuit of some illusory, right-wing, ‘global Britain’ ideology combined with continuing propaganda around regaining sovereignty, is bound to fail overall. Instead, the UK is moving into the position of being a rather large economic and political satellite of the EU. And while in some ways, as intended by the Brexiters, leaving the EU will certainly weaken EU-UK relations, Brexit will mainly have the result of leaving the UK with less influence, less voice and less say but still hugely dependent on, and interdependent with, its European neighbours

The political and media frenzy around the possibility of deal or no deal was deliberately stoked by the prime minister, Boris Johnson, and his entourage to encourage headlines of an ultimate UK victory in the talks (Johnson’s cowardice and self-interest always making a deal look the more likely outcome). The stand-off also served to take attention away from the fact that any deal was bound to put up trade and other barriers and to fracture the UK’s part in the EU’s economic and political institutions, and so to damage the UK. But now, in the face of a 1,246 page deal—and much more yet to be negotiated or unilaterally decided (on data, financial services and more)—the reality is laid clearly out for all to see..

Read more at: The UK’s European question is far from over – Kirsty Hughes

View from the EU: Britain 'taken over by gamblers, liars, clowns and their cheerleaders'

Britain faces an uncertain future as it finally pulls clear of the EU’s orbit, continental commentators have predicted, its reputation for pragmatism and probity shredded by a Brexit process most see as profoundly populist and dangerously dishonest.

“For us, the UK has always been seen as like-minded: economically progressive, politically stable, respect for the rule of law – a beacon of western liberal democracy,” said Rem Korteweg, of the Clingendael Institute thinktank in the Netherlands.

read more at: View from the EU: Britain 'taken over by gamblers, liars, clowns and their cheerleaders' | Politics | The Guardian

Brexit:"Stupidity on steroids":Theresa May urged to prepare for no-deal Brexit by former ministers-by Ashley Cowburn

The British newspaper Independent reports that PM Theresa May is being urged to prepare to walk away from the EU without a deal by former Conservative ministers, insisting the UK should not be “terrified” of ending the negotiations with Brussels.

In a letter to the Prime Minister, four ex-Cabinet ministers, including Lord Lawson, Owen Paterson, John Redwood and Peter Lilley, call on Ms May to “concentrate our resources on resolving administrative issues” ahead of leaving with no deal in March 2019.

Operating on World Trade Organisation rules, they claim, would help Britain “crystallise the economic opportunities” of Brexit, give businesses “absolute certainty” about the future and sever ties with Brussels regulations which “take opportunities off the table”.

The letter, organized by the Leave Means Leave campaign, comes as the Prime Minister went to Brussels in an attempt to appeal directly to the EU heads of government and bypass the stalled negotiating process.

Ms May will hope to engage them “in a discussion” to end the impasse, a senior UK Government official said, ahead of the EU leaders’ own Brexit talks in Britain’s absence.

In the letter to The Daily Telegraph, the senior Eurosceptics add: “No deal on trade is better than a deal which locks the UK into the European regulatory system and takes opportunities off the table.

Speaking about the plea to Ms May, Mr Paterson, the former Environment Secretary, told BBC Radio 4’s Today program that it appeared unlikely a trade deal would be struck with the EU “because they are flatly refusing to talk about it” and that there was a “complete obsession with money” - the so-called divorce bill.

He said that a trade deal with the EU is “the best destination, but what we should not be terrified of is the WTO”.

As European leaders gathered in Brussels, he said: ”We have to face the fact that this summit is not going to discuss any future trade deal. We are ineluctably moving down the road to a WTO arrangement so we had better start preparing for it.

“If they come back - and we very much hope they would - to talk about a free trade deal, that would be a bonus.”

But pro-EU Tory former cabinet minister Nicky Morgan said: “It is absolutely not 'inevitable' that the UK ends up on WTO terms with no Brexit deal - it is what the hard Brexiteers want.”

"A lot of people, corporations, financial institutions and industries, will start packing their bags, if they are not doing so already." 

EU-Digest

USA: Paul Krugman dissects the staggering ignorance of the Trump White House - by Janet Allon

Is the Trump White House evil or just stupid? The answer to that burning question is, well, both. In Monday’s column, Paul Krugman takes as his subject the incompetence piece, which is evident in matters both large and seemingly trivial.

Though when you can’t be bothered to learn how you should address the Prime Minister of Japan, or the relatively simple fact that in Asia, the order of names is reversed, it seems more than a little representative of a certain incurious attitude. Trump addressed Abe Shinzo as Prime Minister Shinzo, the equivalent of calling Trump President Donald.  “Trivial?” 

Krugman asks. “Well, it would be if it were an isolated instance. But it isn’t.” In fact it appears that for both the Republican-led Congress and the clowns in the White House, ignorance is seen as a kind of strength.

Examples abound, per Krugman.

We see this on legal matters: In a widely quoted analysis, the legal expert Benjamin Wittes described the infamous executive order on refugees as “malevolence tempered by incompetence,” and noted that the order reads “as if it was not reviewed by competent counsel at all” — which is a good way to lose in court . . .

We see it on national security matters, where the president continues to rely on a chief adviser who, suspicious closeness to the Kremlin aside, appears to get his strategic information from right-wing conspiracy theorists . . . 

We see it on education, where the hearings for Betsy DeVos, the education secretary, revealed her to be completely ignorant about even the most elementary issues . . . We see it on diplomacy. How hard is it to ask someone from the State Department to make sure that the White House gets foreign leaders’ names right?

Too hard, apparently: Before the Abe flub, the official agenda for the state visit by Theresa May, the British prime minister, repeatedly misspelled her name.

Read more: Paul Krugman dissects the staggering ignorance of the Trump White House - Salon.com

Half of Europeans think Britain will leave the EU "but poll shows all of them think their country should stay in" – by Vince Chadwic

BREXIT

Half of Europeans in eight EU countries think Britain will vote to leave in the June 23 referendum, according to a poll published Monday.

The Ipsos MORI survey also found that almost half of those questioned think their country should follow Britain’s lead and hold a referendum on EU membership.

The online survey of between 500 and 1,000 adults under the age of 65 in eight countries, plus the U.K., found 45 percent want an EU referendum, and 33 percent would vote to leave if given the choice today.

In Italy, 48 percent would vote to leave in a hypothetical referendum, compared to 41 percent in France and 39 percent in Sweden. Only 22 percent of Poles and 21 percent of Spaniards would vote to go.

“A topic that unifies [Poles] to a large degree is our membership of the European Union,” Polish President Andrzej Duda told Polsat news in a recent interview. “There are no serious politicians today who say that we should leave the European Union.”

Do you think your own country should hold an EU referendum?

 

Blue Yes - Red No
 In the event of an EU referendum in your own country, how would you vote?

Blue Remain: Red: Opt out

SOURCE: Ipsos MORI Brexit poll May 9

Read more: Half of Europeans think Britain will leave the EU – POLITICO

Brexit: Britons Will Be Poorer if They Leave E.U., Government Asserts - by Stephen Castle

Great Britain or Poor Britain?

The British government outlined the central argument on Monday it hopes will persuade voters to stay in the European Union, publishing a detailed economic analysis finding that Britons will be poorer if they quit.

The release of the publication by the Treasury, complete with complex algebraic calculations, is an important moment before a referendum, to take place June 23, on whether Britain should end more than four decades of integration and quit the 28-nation bloc.

Those who oppose a British withdrawal from the European Union, known as “Brexit,” say that it would inevitably lead to economic uncertainty and deter investment, and that it could complicate ties with the bloc, the country’s biggest trade partner.

On Monday, the government put a number on that claim, asserting that, under one midrange situation, annual economic output would be 4,300 pounds, around $6,100, lower per household if Britain left than if it stayed in the bloc.

.In any event, the chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, said at a speech in Bristol, England, that the country “would be permanently poorer if it left the European Union” because “we’d trade less, do less business and receive less investment.”

Mr. Osborne, who with Prime Minister David Cameron is campaigning for Britons to vote to remain, added: “The price would be paid by British families. Wages would be lower, and prices would be higher.”

Those advocating an exit, including dissenters in the governing Conservative Party, quickly dismissed the analysis. Andrea Leadsom, a government minister who used to work in the Treasury, called it “extraordinarily biased.”

The release of the document highlights the quickening tempo of the referendum campaign, which officially began last week.

And it precedes a visit to Britain this week by President Obama, who is expected, if asked, to endorse continued British membership in the bloc but to note that it is a decision for British voters.

Note EU-Digest: the other disaster that looms for Britain in case they leave the EU, is that Scotland has indicated they want to remain in the EU and will secede from the United Kingdam if they leave the EU.

Read more: Britons Will Be Poorer if They Leave E.U., Government Asserts - The New York Times