The U.S. and Europe are stepping up their
sanctions against Russia, but the restrictions remain partial and porous
compared with other economic embargoes recently imposed by the West.
Bans
on buying new bonds of Russian state-owned banks, or on selling some
engineering technology to Russia's oil industry, are expected to hurt
parts of Russia's economy. But the measures don't touch Russia's main
business with the West: the sale of natural gas and oil to Europe.
That
makes the sanctions regime fundamentally different from the sweeping
Western embargo that has blocked Iran from selling any oil or gas to its
traditional customers in the European Union.
"The EU's core business with Russia has been left untouched," said
Stefan Lehne,
a scholar at Carnegie Europe, a nonpartisan Brussels think tank.
Mr.
Lehne said the EU is likely to adopt further sanctions against Russia,
including tighter financial-sector restrictions, but that energy
supplies won't be touched. "If you really restrict Russian energy
exports, then you hurt the EU as much as Russia."
EU leaders including German Chancellor
Angela Merkel
have said the sanctions can be scaled back if Moscow becomes more
cooperative in the Ukraine conflict—or scaled up if it continues to
support pro-Russia rebels there.
But
few in Europe can imagine a boycott of Russian gas, which flowed West
continuously even at the height of Cold War enmity. Many countries
across the Continent have no way of replacing Russian gas quickly or
affordably.
A sanctions regime that
targets secondary economic ties such as banking, specialized engineering
and weapons highlights the limits of the EU's room for maneuver.
Despite doubts about the ability of the new
measures to change the Kremlin's mind, experience shows international
sanctions tend to escalate as the affected country finds ways to evade
them. That leads to efforts to plug loopholes and tighten them. And in
this particular conflict, political and military events are intensifying
rather than defusing the underlying conflict.
"The
Ukrainian military is showing greater capability, so Russia has to step
back or double down" in supporting the rebels, said
Robert Kahn,
senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
"So far, the signs are it's likely to double down."
Sanctions
can be effective when accompanied by a workable political strategy to
resolve a conflict through negotiations, but sometimes the EU adopts
sanctions "out of a sense that something must be done," said Mr. Lehne
at Carnegie Europe.
"It's possible that this will be one of the effective cases, but it's not guaranteed," he said.
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