EU—Which Kind of Future? - Three Different Scenarios - by Külliki Tafel, Erik Terk
At the end of 2002, a research project about the future of the EU and Estonia was completed in cooperation of the Estonian Institute for Futures Studies and the Institute of International and Social Studies, commissioned by the European Integration Bureau of Estonia.In the process of the work, three possible future scenarios of the EU were drafted as basis materials for detailing Estonia's initial positions in the debates over the EU future in the Convention.
First scenario:"Superpower Europe"
The Superpower Europe means the increase of the number of functions centralised to the EU level, the strengthening of the pan-EU institutions (especially the European Commission) and therefore the weakening of the role of the nation states.Second scenario:Europe of Nations/Minimal Europe. In a Europe of Nations the increase of functions centralised at the EU level will be obstructed, their number is more likely to be reduced. The institutional development takes place towards the strengthening of the nation states' positions, while the in-depth development of the multi-speed Europe will also continue.Third scenario: Citizens' Europe:Citizens' Europe will mark the access to power of the European demos and civic society at the EU level. The complexity and slowness of the decisionmaking mechanisms will be accepted because this ensures the principle of "reckoning with everybody's interests." A debating and counselling form of government will dominate. The role of nation states will be somewhat reduced, but on the other hand, the cultural pluralism and equality between the member states will be highly valued.
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