Greece leaving the euro could be the spring surprise - by Matthew Lynn

What is the biggest shock that could hit the markets in the coming year? The Federal Reserve not just tapering, but deciding to hike interest rates back to normal levels? Violent protests in China aimed at toppling the government? OPEC deciding to price oil in bitcoins rather than dollars?

Any of these would come as a surprise. 

 

But the most likely shock is something the markets have stopped worrying about — a sudden and dramatic Greek exit from the euro EURUSD -0.15%  

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True, there were plenty of predictions of Greece getting out of the euro in 2011 and 2012. It never happened. Instead, a modest amount of debt was written off and the Greeks knuckled down to year after year of grinding recession. The markets have stopped worrying about a Greek exit from the euro — the so-called  Grexit.

Indeed, there has even been some talk of a Greekcovery getting underway. But in fact, the Grexit has not been cancelled, just postponed.

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