A rising population, a low-tax regime and insulation from the worst
of the eurozone's problems leave Britain on course to overtake Germany
as Europe's biggest economy within the next two decades, according to a
study released on Thursday.
The annual world economic league tables from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that Germany – for decades Europe's powerhouse economy – will have a smaller economy than the UK by about 2030.
Although strong growth by emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Russia mean that the UK will slip down the global rankings over the next two decades, the CEBR said it would be the second most successful western economy after the US.
"Positive demographics with continuing immigration [and] rather less exposure to the problems of the eurozone than other European economies combine with relatively low taxes by European standards to encourage faster growth than in most western economies," the report said. "Issues for the UK include the need to further reorient its exports to the faster growing markets, an unresolved relationship with the rest of the EU and the possibility of breakup – highlighted by the referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014."
The CEBR said it used forecasts for growth, inflation and currency values to compile league tables of the size of economies measured in US dollars in 2013, 2018, 2023 and 2028. It said the predictions needed to be treated with caution, especially in light of the unpredictable fluctuations in currencies.
But the CEBR said its model showed China overtaking the US to become the world's biggest economy by 2028, by which time both will be five times as big as India, in third place.
Note EU-Digest: Obviously this prediction will not materialize if Scotland votes in September 2014 to become Independent and if Britain leaves the EU.
Read more: Britain 'will be Europe's top economy by 2030' | Business | The Guardian
The annual world economic league tables from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that Germany – for decades Europe's powerhouse economy – will have a smaller economy than the UK by about 2030.
Although strong growth by emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Russia mean that the UK will slip down the global rankings over the next two decades, the CEBR said it would be the second most successful western economy after the US.
"Positive demographics with continuing immigration [and] rather less exposure to the problems of the eurozone than other European economies combine with relatively low taxes by European standards to encourage faster growth than in most western economies," the report said. "Issues for the UK include the need to further reorient its exports to the faster growing markets, an unresolved relationship with the rest of the EU and the possibility of breakup – highlighted by the referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014."
The CEBR said it used forecasts for growth, inflation and currency values to compile league tables of the size of economies measured in US dollars in 2013, 2018, 2023 and 2028. It said the predictions needed to be treated with caution, especially in light of the unpredictable fluctuations in currencies.
But the CEBR said its model showed China overtaking the US to become the world's biggest economy by 2028, by which time both will be five times as big as India, in third place.
Note EU-Digest: Obviously this prediction will not materialize if Scotland votes in September 2014 to become Independent and if Britain leaves the EU.
Read more: Britain 'will be Europe's top economy by 2030' | Business | The Guardian
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