Tomorrow's Provincial/Senate election will be a test-case on the ability of the present Dutch Government to survive. Given that the government coalition presently doesn't have a majority in the Senate, it will be crucial for it to win this majority if it wants to turn some of their highly controversial budget cutting legislation into law.
The 75 members of the Dutch Senate (Eerste Kamer) in the Dutch Parliament (the Staten Generaal) are elected by the members of the twelve Provincial Councils. These elections are indirect: whereby the voters elect the members of the Provincial Councils, who in turn elect the members of the Senate.
For many observers today it seems as if the Netherlands has lost its political direction. Basically the country is becoming more and more polarized politically - divided right through the middle between left and right wing parties, with Geert Wilders’ controversial and anti-Muslim populist Party keeping the present Mark Rutte Government in the saddle with a razor-thin majority of just one vote.
With only one day to go before the elections the polls are not showing much good news for Dutch PM Mark Rutte, even though his "supporter" Geert Wilders is expected to achieve a smashing victory. Wilders party based on the polls, is shown to go from no seats in the present Senate to 11, and Mark Rutte his own party, the VVD, is expected to gain two seats.
But not all the news is good for Wilders. Given that for the first time the PVV had to actively participate in numerous debates and most of the time came across as not able to be specific about the issues at hand and "waffled" about some of the facts, one can probably expect that the PVV of Wilders has reached the "top of the ladder" in their political climb to power, and over the long-term will not increase significantly in importance.
The Polls also show that the biggest loser in this election among the coalition parties will be the Christian Democratic Party (CDA), which can expect an historic defeat, going from a leadership position in the Senate to below half their present seats. Among the problems the CDA seems to be facing is that their "defacto" leader Maxime Verhagen is unpopular among the voters and many party members, not only due to the internal division within the party about the CDA working with Mr Wilders, but also because Verhagen is seen as "shifty" and speaking out of both sides of his mouth. One political analyst said Verhagen tried to make his Christian Democratic Party swallow the Islamophobia philosophy of Wilders by mixing it with a "Christian sauce". If the Polls are right, a major defeat for the CDA in tomorrow's election probably could mean "sayonara" for Maxime Verhagen .
The bottom line seems to be that if the present political coalition does not succeed in getting a majority in the Dutch Senate elections tomorrow, it could mean the end of the Rutte Government and Maxime Verhagen dropping his claim on the CDA leadership. A very interesting election to say the least.
EU-Digest
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picture insert from: lsdimension.wordpress.com
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