Here are five myths about the European Union:
1. The Europeans will never get their act together.
The eurozone will never be a United States of Europe, but its members have responded to the crisis with impressive speed. To defend against the financial collapse of the weaker members, they have created joint rescue funds approximating $1 trillion. The European Central Bank has lent trillions more, like the Federal Reserve, and has just reaffirmed that it will do as much as necessary to avoid catastrophe.
The eurozone countries have agreed on firm fiscal rules -- with stiff enforcement penalties -- to limit future budget deficits. They are moving toward a partial fiscal union, through which the strongest countries will help fund the weaker partners. They are working out a full banking union that will prevent bank runs by providing Europe-wide deposit insurance. The debtor countries are implementing politically difficult budget cutbacks and major structural reforms to promote growth, such as easing firing procedures and thus encouraging hiring as well as greater productivity.
2. Greece's departure from the eurozone would doom the single currency.
Actually, it would strengthen the currency. The result would be so chaotic for Greece that the other debtor countries, observing the wreckage, would do whatever it took to avoid the same fate.
3. German taxpayers will never bail out Greek (or Spanish or Italian) pensioners.
Germany is and will remain the paymaster of Europe, complaining loudly and demanding austerity and reform, but coughing up however much is necessary to hold the eurozone together. There are many reasons. First, the entire European integration project of the past six decades, of which the euro is now the decisive symbol, arose from the devastation wreaked by Germany over the previous century. The Germans will not run the risk of destroying Europe again.
Moreover, Germany's export-based economic model rests squarely on the euro: The country runs the world's largest trade surplus, but it enjoys a highly competitive currency against the rest of the world because the exchange rate of the common currency reflects the economies of its weaker neighbors as well as the German powerhouse. And German banks are heavily exposed in the debtor countries, so German taxpayers would have to rescue them if Spain or Italy failed.
4. If austerity measures continue, voters will revolt and extremists will take over.
One of the most amazing aspects of the euro crisis so far is that the political center has held in every debtor country. Incumbent governments have been rejected in all of them, but radical alternatives from both the left and the right have been rejected even more soundly. Portugal and Ireland have stuck to the austerity commitments required as part of their bailouts, while Spain and Italy have gone beyond, with more spending cuts, higher taxes and major labor-market reforms. Only Greek voters flirted with a rejectionist party, but a bank run quickly forced them to reverse course.
5. The euro crisis will tank the U.S. economy and could even swing the presidential election.
No doubt, the downturn in Europe has dampened exports and corporate profits in the United States, weakened employment and investor confidence, and cut perhaps 1 percent off our gross domestic product. But the world's emerging economies, led by China and India, account for half of the global economy and will continue to expand at about 6 percent annually for the foreseeable future.
This is slower than before, but such growth will keep the global economy -- including the United States -- churning for some time. In addition, the United States derives important benefits from Europe's troubles because the crisis diverts global capital into the dollar, especially Treasury securities, keeping our interest rates low and thus fueling at least a gradual recovery of housing and consumer demand.
Dr. C. Fred Bergsten the director of the prestigious Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Read More: Myths about the European Union crisis | StarTribune.com
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