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9/21/12

Wrestling with the future: Smart systems and global chaos - by Jon Tullett

The world is moving towards a data economy, but the evolution will not be smooth. The global financial crisis is just one example of a data-driven industry fighting for survival. Across the world, companies, and even nations, are wrestling with the future.

Glen Hiemstra, well-known futurist and founder of futurist.com, spoke at SAS Institute's executive forum in Johannesburg, and set out a vision of the next generation of technology, finance and more.

The pace of technology change has continued to accelerate, even throughout the economic downturn.“'Really smart' is on the way,” Hiemstra says, pointing to IBM's Watson and Apple's Siri as early forerunners of tomorrow's smart systems. “We're really just dipping our toes into it right now, but really smart computers are going to make what we're doing right now look like child's play. Look at the computing device on your desk, and realize that you're looking at a Model T.

If today's economy runs on oil, Hiemstra believes the next generation will run on data. “If you're an oil company, you know two things for sure today. First, you know you're making lots of money. And you know that someday it's going to come to an end. Some day the oil will run out. If you're a miner of big data, you know two things for sure today. First, you're just beginning to figure out how to make money. The second thing you know is that tomorrow there's going to be more, and the next day there's going to be even more. 100 years from now there's going to be an unlimited supply. That's exactly the opposite business proposition to oil.”

Big data, effectively measured, means more accurate prediction, Hiemstra points out. “Data is capable of being analysed in ways that let us see where things are going, in ways we couldn't before. For example, MasterCard can predict, based on your buying patterns, when you're likely to get divorced.”

 Read more: Smart systems and global chaos | ITWeb

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