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Turkey faces a momentous time and challenges in its increasingly complex and frustrating (for both sides) accession negotiations with the EU. There is still talk of the EU-Turkish relations once again heading towards another critical turning point (or a “train crash” in the words of the enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn) this autumn if both sides fail to reach common ground. Reasons for this are diverse, including commonly recognised slowdown in political reforms in Turkey, the EU’s loss of political credibility in mishandling the Cyprus issue and thus triggering unprecedented euro-scepticism in Turkey. A further complicating factor in the period ahead will be the coming presidential (May 2007) and parliamentary (November) elections both in Turkey and in some key EU member countries, which could divert attention to more immediate domestic priorities.
The public mood vis-à-vis in Turkey has dramatically changed. The EU’s effective "golden carrot", namely the attraction of its membership, is no longer enticing Turkish leaders and public at large. Indeed, the latest Eurobarometer showed support for EU membership among Turks slipping to 44 percent – a stark contrast to Turkish support levels of around 85 percent two years ago. This decline is largely due to EU’s failure to keep its promises on Cyprus.
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