Sometimes history jumps. Think of the first world war, the Bolshevik
revolution, the Great Depression, the election of Adolf Hitler, the
second world war, the beginning of the cold war, the collapse of the
European empires, Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” of China, the
demise of the Soviet Union, and the financial crisis of 2007-09 and
subsequent “great recession”.
We may be on the brink of an event as transformative as many of
these: the election of Donald Trump as US president. This would mark the
end of a US-led west as the central force in global affairs. The result
would not be a new order. It would be perilous disorder.
The fact that Mr Trump can be a credible contender for the presidency is astounding. In business, he is a
serial defaulter and
litigator turned reality TV star. He is a
peddler of falsehoods and
conspiracy theories. He utters
racist calumnies. He attacks the
independence of the judiciary.
He refuses to reveal his taxes. He has no experience of political
office and incoherent policies. He glories in ignorance. He even hints
at a federal
default. He undermines confidence in the
US-created trade order, by threatening to tear up past agreements. He undermines confidence in US democracy by claiming the election will be
rigged. He supports
torture and the
deliberate killing of the families of alleged terrorists. He
admires the former KGB agent who runs Russia.
Evidently,
a huge number of US voters have lost confidence in the country’s
political and economic systems. This is so to an extent not seen even in
the 1930s, when voters turned towards an established politician. Yet,
for all its challenges, the US is not in such terrible shape. It is the
richest large country in the history of the world. Growth is slow, but
unemployment is low. If voters were to choose Mr Trump — despite his
failings, displayed again in the
first presidential debate — this would tell us grim things about the health of the US.
It
is the world’s leading power, so this is not just a domestic US
concern. What might a Trump presidency mean? Forecasting the policies of
someone so
unpredictable is impossible. But a few things seem at least reasonably clear.
The
US and its allies remain immensely powerful. But their economic
dominance is in slow decline.
According to the International Monetary
Fund, the share of the high-income countries (essentially, the US and
its chief allies) will fall from 64 per cent of global output (measured
at purchasing power) in 1990 to 39 per cent in 2020, while the US share
will fall from 22 per cent to 15 per cent over this period.
While the US military might is still
huge,
two caveats must be made. One is that winning a conventional war is
quite a different matter from achieving one’s aims on the ground, as the
Vietnam and Iraq wars showed. Furthermore, China’s rapidly rising
defence spending could create serious military difficulties for the US
in the Asia-Pacific region.
It follows that the ability of the US
to shape the world to its liking will rest increasingly on its influence
over the global economic and political systems. Indeed, this is not
new. It has been a feature of US hegemony since the 1940s. But this is
even more important today. The alliances the US creates, the
institutions it supports and the prestige it possesses are truly
invaluable assets. All such strategic assets would be in grave peril if
Mr Trump were to be president.
The biggest contrast between the US
and China is that the former has so many powerful allies. Even Vladimir
Putin is not a reliable ally for China. America’s allies support the US
largely because they trust it. That trust is based on its perceived
commitment to predictable, values-based behaviour. Its alliances have
not been problem-free, far from it. But they have worked. Mr Trump’s
cherished unpredictability and transactional approach to partnerships
would damage the alliances irreparably.
A vital feature of the
US-led global order has been the role of multilateral institutions, such
as the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation. In binding
itself by the rules of an open economic system, the US has encouraged
others to do the same. The result has been extraordinary growth in
prosperity: between 1950 and 2015, average global real output per head
rose sixfold. Mr Trump does not understand this system. The results of
repudiation could be calamitous for all.
The Iraq war has damaged trust in US wisdom and competence. But the
global financial crisis has been even more destructive. Many have long
suspected US motives. But they thought it knew how to manage a
capitalist system. The crisis devastated that confidence.
After
all this damage, election of a man as unqualified as Mr Trump would call
into question something even more fundamental: belief in the capacity
of the US to choose reasonably well-informed and competent leaders.
Under a President Trump, the democratic system would lose much of its
credibility as a model for the organisation of a civilised political
life. Mr Putin and other actual or would-be despots would cheer. Their
belief that talk of western values is just hypocrisy would be
vindicated. But those who see the US as a bastion of democracy would
despair.
If Mr Trump were to win, it would be a regime change for the world. It would, for example, end efforts to manage the threat of
climate change,
possibly forever. But even his candidacy suggests that the US role in
the global order risks undergoing a transformation. That role depended
not only on American economic and military prowess, but also on the
values it represented. For all its mistakes, the ideal of a law-governed
democratic republic remained visible. Hillary Clinton is an imperfect
candidate. Mr Trump is something else altogether. Far from making
America great, his presidency might unravel the world.
Read more: How the west might soon be lost — FT.com