|Erdogan - the Sultan in Chief|
The election was a farce. In any election, AKP cheating gives it an extra 5 percent or so bonus. That figure, cited privately by Turkish politicians, diplomats and veteran Turkish journalists, takes into account stuffed ballots, lost ballot boxes from opposition-held areas, voter suppression and—in the November 1 election—enough registered dead people to make a corrupt Chicago politician blush.
Erdogan long ago became the Turkish equivalent of corrupt Russian leader Vladimir Putin, minus the polonium tea (at least until he gets his hands on some polonium). He has sworn "to raise a religious generation," and he will now succeed.
Now he also seeks to change the constitution to confirm his position as sultan-in-chief. Some diplomats comfort themselves with the fact that Erdogan's new parliamentary majority falls short of that needed to simply impose constitutional change and even short of that needed to call a referendum.
These analysts make the mistake of assuming that Erdogan respects institutions or plays by the rules. He is within easy bribery of the additional 15 votes he needs for a referendum and can fix any ballot to conform to his desired results. It's just a matter of time.
So what next for Turkey?
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry may believe themselves sophisticated for denying the obvious, but Turkey is a state sponsor of terrorism. It has become Pakistan on the Mediterranean.
Erdogan supports the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), Hamas, jihadi terrorism in Sudan and, to some extent at least, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram. Erdogan is an ideologue, and he will not hesitate to kill people to promote hatred and intolerance.
Turkey's support for the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda affiliates inside Syria will, in the long term, claim the lives of thousands inside Turkey. The recent bombings in Ankara and beheading in southeastern Turkey should send chills down the spine of anyone betting on Turkish stability.
The chief victims of Erdogan's strengthened rule will be women. Erdogan has made clear his view that women should have three babies, and he has called birth control "treason" and systematically excluded women from government service. He has even declared a war on Caesarean sections, as they deny God's will.
Erdogan despises the press. He has not only transformed Turkey into "the world's largest prison for journalists," but has been increasingly shameless in his efforts, seizing opposition newspapers and shutting down independent television stations midbroadcast.
Many journalists will retire or flee; others make moral compromise. Cengiz Çandar, for example, a columnist for Radikal and a veteran of both the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the U.S. Institute of Peace, went so far as to endorse the arrests of his fellow journalists.
Turkey has already fallen behind Russia in press freedom—no easy feat; it is well on its way to falling behind Iran. How low it can go is anyone's guess, as Erdogan even turns to punishing thought-crimes.
The Turkish economy is on borrowed time, and perhaps a covert Qatari line of credit. When the Turkish economy imploded in 2000 to 2001, Turks turned to Erdogan, who promised an end to corruption and a technocratic fix.
This time around, they will have nowhere to turn. To invest in Turkey is akin to investing in Russia: Expect to lose money. The question for the world is, "What might Erdogan do to distract from the looming disaster?"
Obama at first embraced Erdogan and then chose to ignore him. A new U.S. president in 2016 will not have such a luxury.
He or she will have to answer some very basic questions about the U.S. approach to Turkey. It's time to plan for a world where Turkey is an adversary and a catalyst for regional instability, not a pillar upon which to rely.
For the complete report go to Newsweek