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11/28/16

US Economy -Trumpanomics: Donald Trump's economic policies could go badly wrong – but not soon enough

November 2020: the results of the US presidential election are in. The Democrat candidate, Elizabeth Warren, fought bravely but the outcome was never really in doubt. With the economy booming, Donald Trump is returned to the White House in a landslide. His pitch to voters has been simple: I kept my promise. America is great again.

For Trump’s opponents, this is the nightmare scenario. Still stunned by Hillary Clinton’s defeat, they have taken comfort from their belief that the billionaire property tycoon will prove to be a one-term president – exposed as a dangerous charlatan as soon as he takes office. This may, indeed, prove to be the case. Trumponomics is by no means a fully thought-through programme. The inconsistencies are obvious, as are the dangers. It could all go horribly wrong. But Trump may well have won a second term by the time it does.

Paul Krugman, the Nobel prize-winning economist and one of Trump’s most vociferous critics, suggested in the immediate aftermath of “that horrible election night” that a global recession was imminent.

Now the dust has had time to settle, Krugman admits that his disappointment got the better of him. “Trumpism will have dire effects, but they will take time to become manifest. In fact, don’t be surprised if economic growth actually accelerates for a couple of years.”

Steve Keen, economics professor at Kingston University, thinks Trump’s first term will see a sharp acceleration in US growth – to perhaps 4% a year. By the time any of the nasty side-effects become apparent, he says, Trump will have been safely re-elected.

Read more: Donald Trump's economic policies could go badly wrong – but not soon enough | Business | The Guardian

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