Since the election, millions of people the world over have comforted themselves with the thought that no matter how outrageous, incompetent, or stupid Donald J. Trump may be, at least the odds are reasonably high that he won’t make it through a full term. Sure, with Republicans controlling Congress, impeachment would be no easy feat, but sooner or later, he would have to do something that would get them to put country before politics. (Whether Vice President Mike Pence would be an improvement is, among Democrats, another subject of debate.)
While we’re probably not there yet, the events of this week—wherein Trump fired the man who was investigating his campaign for ties to Russia—have betting men and women worldwide putting more money on the odds of The Big I. Per Politico:
On the website PredictIt, traders set the Trump’s chances of still serving as president at the end of 2017 at 83 percent, as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s down from 87 percent at the close of trading Tuesday — though the price has stabilized from the low-water mark of 79 percent following the Comey news. Across the pond, where bettors have been more bullish on Trump’s potential removal, the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power told Politico on Wednesday that its Trump impeachment odds had shortened, from 10/11 (52 percent) to 4/6 (60 percent) . . .
The odds on Bovada, another offshore gambling site with a bigger U.S. footprint, are more pessimistic about Trump’s removal. Trump is considered marginally more likely than not to serve a full term as president; bettors have to wager $130 to win $100 that Trump will make it to January 20, 2021.
Read more: Trump’s Odds of Impeachment Are Spiking Online | Vanity Fair