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9/5/15

What's the greatest risk to Turkey's economy? - by Barın Kayaoğlu

Any one of the following problems would ring alarm bells for an emerging market: a slowing economy,rising inflation,distrustful citizens exchanging local currency deposits for dollars whenever possible, rising tide of violence scaring away foreign tourists and hurting hard currency reserves and concerned foreign investors eyeing the exit because of a bearish stock exchange and a possible hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

The Turkish currency, which had an average value of 1.90 to the dollar, is likely to decline further and surpass the three-lira threshold soon. “Never mind three, it could even be tr/dolar-3-lira to the dollar,” wrote Mert Yildiz, a senior economist at the prestigious economic and financial analysis firm Roubini Global Economics.

According to one report, because the AKP has used dollar figures to boast of its role in the “Turkish economic miracle,” the bleeding in the lira means Turkey could lose its place in the G-20, the group representing the world’s top 20 economies.

Read more: What's the greatest risk to Turkey's economy? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

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